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- Bosnia: CPI (Dec)
- Canada: Wholesale Trade, MSIO (Nov)
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- US: Philadelphia Fed Nonmfg Business Outlook Survey (Jan)
- Hungary: Wages (Nov), Fostered Workers, Social Security Balance (Dec), Maturity Profile of Central Government Debt (Q4)
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Economy in Brief
Delay in Release
of Data for Construction, MSIO, Intl Trade, Wholesale Trade, Treasury Statement, Retail Sales, Business Sales & Inventories, and Housing Starts Due to Lapse in Federal Government Funding.
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Slumps Again in January
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level slumped further to -0.2 in January...
U.S. Industrial Production Celebrates 100 Years With An Increase
In the 100th anniversary of it release, industrial production rose a greater-than-expected 0.3% (3.9% year-on-year) during December...
U.K. Retail Sales Begin to Lose Momentum
U.K. retail sales fell by a sharp 1% in December...
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index Rebounds; Pricing Pressure Eases
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index increased to 17.0 during January...
by Tom Moeller November 13, 2014
The Federal Government reported a $121.7 billion budget deficit during October compared to a $90.6 billion during October of last year. For FY 2015, the Congressional Budget Office projects the budget deficit will total $469 billion compared to $483.4 billion last year, then rise to $556 billion in FY 2016
The increase in the deficit's size occurred with a rise in outlay growth to 15.5% y/y, due to faster gains in several spending areas. Medicare outlays grew by roughly two thirds y/y. Veterans benefits along with spending on education, training, employment & social services grew by roughly one-half y/y. Income security payments rose 14.9% y/y and defense outlays were up 6.0% y/y. Social security payments grew a moderate 4.7% y/y, the same as net interest payments.
Net revenues so far in FY 2015 increased 6.9% y/y. Corporate income taxes surged by more than one-half y/y. Individual income taxes rose 7.6% y/y and social insurance taxes gained 3.7%. Excise taxes gained 1.1% y/y.
Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.
| US Government Finance | Oct | FY'14 | FY'13 | FY'12 | FY'11 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget Balance | -- | $-121.7 bil. | $-483.4 bil. | $-680.3 bil. | $-1,089.2 bil. | $-1,296.8 bil. |
| As a percent of GDP | -- | 2.8 | 4.1 | 6.8 | 8.4 | |
| % of Total | FY'15 YTD | |||||
| Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 6.9 | 8.9% | 13.3% | 6.4% | 6.5% |
| Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 16.3 | 3.7 | 21.5 |
| Corporate Income Taxes | 10 | 58.0 | 17.3 | 12.9 | 33.8 | -5.4 |
| Social Insurance Taxes | 34 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 12.1 | 3.2 | -5.3 |
| Excise Taxes | 3 | 1.1 | 11.1 | 6.3 | 9.2 | 8.2 |
| Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 15.5 | 1.4 | -2.4 | -1.7 | 4.1 |
| National Defense | 18 | 6.0 | -4.7 | -6.3 | -3.9 | 1.7 |
| Health | 10 | 20.2 | 14.2 | 3.1 | -7.0 | 1.0 |
| Medicare | 14 | 65.6 | 2.8 | 5.5 | -2.8 | 7.5 |
| Income Security | 16 | 14.9 | -4.3 | -1.1 | -9.1 | -4.1 |
| Social Security | 24 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 5.8 | 3.4 |
| Veterans Benefits | 4 | 54.0 | 7.7 | 11.5 | -2.0 | 17.3 |
| Education, Training, Employment & Social Services | 3 | 51.7 | 25.9 | -21.9 | -10.3 | -20.6 |
| Interest | 6 | 4.7 | 3.0 | 0.4 | -3.0 | 15.8 |
