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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Jumps With More Spending
by Tom Moeller  November 13, 2014

The Federal Government reported a $121.7 billion budget deficit during October compared to a $90.6 billion during October of last year. For FY 2015, the Congressional Budget Office projects the budget deficit will total $469 billion compared to $483.4 billion last year, then rise to $556 billion in FY 2016

The increase in the deficit's size occurred with a rise in outlay growth to 15.5% y/y, due to faster gains in several spending areas. Medicare outlays grew by roughly two thirds y/y. Veterans benefits along with spending on education, training, employment & social services grew by roughly one-half y/y. Income security payments rose 14.9% y/y and defense outlays were up 6.0% y/y. Social security payments grew a moderate 4.7% y/y, the same as net interest payments.

Net revenues so far in FY 2015 increased 6.9% y/y. Corporate income taxes surged by more than one-half y/y. Individual income taxes rose 7.6% y/y and social insurance taxes gained 3.7%. Excise taxes gained 1.1% y/y.

Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.

 US Government Finance Oct FY'14 FY'13 FY'12 FY'11
Budget Balance -- $-121.7 bil. $-483.4 bil. $-680.3 bil. $-1,089.2 bil. $-1,296.8 bil.
  As a percent of GDP -- 2.8 4.1 6.8 8.4
% of Total FY'15 YTD
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) 100 6.9 8.9% 13.3% 6.4% 6.5%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 7.6 5.9 16.3 3.7 21.5
  Corporate Income Taxes 10 58.0 17.3 12.9 33.8 -5.4
  Social Insurance Taxes 34 3.7 8.0 12.1 3.2 -5.3
  Excise Taxes 3 1.1 11.1 6.3 9.2 8.2
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) 100 15.5 1.4 -2.4 -1.7 4.1
  National Defense 18 6.0 -4.7 -6.3 -3.9 1.7
  Health 10 20.2 14.2 3.1 -7.0 1.0
  Medicare 14 65.6 2.8 5.5 -2.8 7.5
  Income Security 16 14.9 -4.3 -1.1 -9.1 -4.1
  Social Security 24 4.7 4.6 5.2 5.8 3.4
  Veterans Benefits 4 54.0 7.7 11.5 -2.0 17.3
  Education, Training, Employment & Social Services 3 51.7 25.9 -21.9 -10.3 -20.6
  Interest 6 4.7 3.0 0.4 -3.0 15.8
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