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Economy in Brief

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rebound
by Tom Moeller  November 13, 2014

Initial claims for jobless insurance during the week ended November 8 increased to 290,000 (-15.2% y/y) after falling to an unrevised 278,000 during the prior week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 280,000 claims in the latest week. The four-week moving average of initial claims gained to 285,000. During the last ten years, there has been a 76% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended November 1 rose to 2.392 million (-15.9% y/y). The four-week moving average notched up slightly to 2.373 million. The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.8% for the ninth straight week, the lowest level since May 2007.

By state, in the week ended October 18, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with Nebraska (0.70%), Indiana (0.84%), New Hampshire (0.91%), Louisiana (1.03%), Ohio (1.11%) and Texas (1.15%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Oregon (1.98%), Massachusetts (2.08%), Pennsylvania (2.13%), California (2.31%), Connecticut (2.37%) and New Jersey (2.76%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.

Inequality in Skills and the Great Gatsby Curve from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found here.

Unemployment Insurance (000s) 11/08/14 11/01/14 10/25/14 Y/Y % 2013 2012 2011
Initial Claims 290 278 288 -15.2 343 375 409
Continuing Claims -- 2,392 2,356 -15.9 2,977 3,319 3,742
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) -- 1.8 1.8 2.2
2.3 2.6 3.0
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