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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Employment Increase Is Steady
by Tom Moeller  November 5, 2014

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that hiring continued last month at a moderate rate. Private sector employment grew 230,000 during October following a 225,000 September increase, revised from 213,000. The y/y increase of 2.2% has been steady since the middle of 2012. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 220,000 rise.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.

Hiring in the goods-producing sector increased 48,000 (2.2% y/y) following a strong 50,000 rise. Factory sector payrolls grew 15,000 as the 1.1% y/y rise maintained the strongest pace since early last year. Construction industry jobs increased 28,000 (3.9% y/y), the firmest rise since June.

Service-providing payrolls grew 181,000 (2.2% y/y), roughly steady with the increases since late-2011. Industry growth varied. Professional & business services jobs grew 53,000 (3.4% y/y) following a 59,000 rise. Trade, transportation and utilities added 47,000 jobs (1.9%), the strongest gain in three months. Financial activities jobs increased 4,000 (0.9% y/y), the weakest growth since February.

Small businesses' payrolls rose 102,000 in October (2.2% y/y), the largest gain since June. Medium-sized firms added 122,000 (2.1% y/y), the strongest rise of the economic recovery. Large-size company payroll growth was minimal. The 5,000 worker improvement (2.2% y/y) was the weakest since a decline during January of last year.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Oct Sep Aug Y/Y 2013 2012 2011
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 230 225 162 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% 1.8%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 102 93 63 2.2 2.1 2.5 1.1
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 122 47 59 2.1 1.6 2.0 2.0
 Large Payroll (>500) 5 85 40 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.7
Goods-Producing 48 50 30 2.2 1.6 2.2 1.7
 Manufacturing 15 33 17 1.1 0.6 1.6 1.9
Service-Producing 181 176 132 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.8
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