Recent Updates

  • New Zealand: Truckometer Index (Nov)
  • US: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Oct)
  • Canada: Building Permits (Oct), Housing Starts (Nov)
  • Canada Regional: Bldg Permits by Province (Oct), Housing Starts by Province (Nov)
  • G10: Economic Sentix Index, Switzerland: NCI Economic Activity Index (Dec)
  • Nigeria: GDP (Q3)
  • Turkey: GDP (Q3), Survey of Expectations (Dec)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Confidence Jumps With Youthful Exuberance
by Tom Moeller  October 28, 2014

The Conference Board reported that their reading of consumer confidence surged to 94.5 this month (30.5% y/y) from 89.0 in September, revised from 86.0. The latest figure was the highest since October 2007 and easily surpassed expectations for 87.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.

By age group, confidence surged for those under age 35 years old to the highest level since December 2006. For those aged 55 and older confidence also recovered to the highest since January 2008. To the downside, confidence amongst individuals aged 35-54 fell to the lowest level since June.

The overall expectations reading surged 10.0% (31.6% y/y) to 95.0 from 86.4, revised from 83.7. The present situation figure edged 0.8% higher (29.1% y/y) to 93.7 from 93.0, initially reported as 89.4.

Business conditions were rated as good by a new high of 24.5% of respondents. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a lessened 29.1% of respondents, the expansion low. A depressed 16.8% thought there would be more jobs in six months and an improved 19.6% thought business conditions would be better in six months. A lessened 49.1% of respondents were going to buy a major appliance but just 3.8% of respondents planned to buy a new automobile within the next six months, the least since April. Expectations for the inflation rate in six months ticked up to 5.4%.

The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.

Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) Oct Sep Aug Y/Y % 2013 2012 2011
Consumer Confidence Index 94.5 89.0 93.4 30.5 73.2 67.1 58.1
  Present Situation 93.7 93.0 93.9 29.1 67.6 49.8 36.1
  Expectations 95.0 86.4 93.1 31.6 77.0 78.6 72.8
Consumer Confidence By Age Group
  Under 35 Years 123.1 105.7 110.4 47.1 93.1 86.5 77.3
  Aged 35-54 Years 96.5 99.4 100.5 17.7 76.8 68.5 59.8
  Over 55 Years 80.9 73.2 80.7 39.7 61.2 56.7 47.3
close
large image