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Economy in Brief
Kansas City Federal Reserve Factory Index Hits Record High
The Kansas City Fed reported that its index of regional manufacturing sector business activity surged to a record 26...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline Sharply
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply to 209,000 (-17.1% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Are Little Changed; Rates Remain High
The MBA total Mortgage Applications Volume Index eased 0.2% last week (-1.9% y/y)...
Japan Shows Very Moderate Growth As Trade War Clouds Gather
Japan’s sector indexes showed a solid gain in February...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Unexpectedly Rose in April
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose to 128.7 in April from 127.0 (initially reported as 127.7) in March...
by Tom Moeller October 9, 2014
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were roughly stable during the week ended October 4 at 287,000 (-20.7% y/y). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a rebound to 295,000 claims in the latest week. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 287,750, its lowest level since early-2006. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended September 27 fell to 2.381 million (-18.2% y/y), reaching the lowest level since May 2006. The four-week moving average fell to 2.414 million. The insured rate of unemployment held at 1.8% for the fourth week, also the lowest level also since 2007.
By state, in the week ended September 20, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with North & South Dakota (0.27%), Nebraska (0.65%), Indiana (0.83%), Virginia (0.89%) and Ohio (1.05%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Massachusetts (2.02%), Pennsylvania (2.16%), Nevada (2.31%), Connecticut (2.38%), California (2.45%) and New Jersey (2.71%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/04/14 | 09/27/14 | 09/20/14 | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 287 | 288 | 295 | -20.7 | 343 | 375 | 409 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 2,381 | 2,402 | -18.2 | 2,977 | 3,319 | 3,742 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.2 (9/13) |
2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 |