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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Moderates
by Tom Moeller  October 8, 2014

Consumer credit outstanding increased $13.5 billion during August following a $21.6 billion July gain, initially reported as $26.0 billion. Expectations were for a $20.5 billion increase, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 54% correlation between the y/y growth in consumer credit and the y/y growth in personal consumption expenditures.

Usage of non-revolving credit increased $13.7 billion (8.2% y/y) in August. Federal government loans increased 15.1% y/y. These constitute roughly one-third of total non-revolving credit. Finance company lending (27% of the total) edged 0.8% higher y/y. Bank borrowing (26% of the total) rose 7.6% y/y and borrowing at credit unions (10% of the total) advanced 14.3% y/y. Nonprofit & educational institution loans (3% of the total) declined 8.6% y/y. Nonfinancial business loans (1% of the total) were unchanged y/y.

Revolving credit outstanding declined $0.2 billion (+3.2% y/y) in August. It followed the outsized $5.4 billion July gain. Commercial bank & savings institution lending (81% of the total) increased 4.7% y/y. Finance company balances (8% of the total) declined 8.9% y/y while borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) gained 8.3% y/y. Nonfinancial business accounts (3% of the total) remained unchanged y/y and securitized credit card balances (4% of the total) fell 5.4% y/y.

These Federal Reserve Board figures are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.

The minutes to the latest FOMC meeting can be found here.

Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) Aug Jul Jun Y/Y 2013 2012 2011
Total $13.5 bil. $21.6 bil. $18.9 bil 6.8% 6.0% 6.1% 4.1%
   Revolving -0.2 5.4 1.8 3.2 1.3 0.6 0.2
   Nonrevolving 13.7 16.2 17.1 8.2 7.9 8.5 5.9
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