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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Employment Increase Remains Moderate M/M; Factory Hiring Jumps
by Tom Moeller  October 1, 2014

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that hiring remained in the moderate growth range of the last six months. Private sector employment improved last month to 213,000 (2.2% y/y) following a 202,000 August increase, revised from 204,000. The y/y increase of 2.2% extended the steady pace in place since the middle of 2012. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 207,000 increase.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 411,000 companies and nearly 24 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS establishment survey data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.

Hiring in the goods-producing sector gained 58,000 (2.2% y/y), the strongest increase since February 2006. Factory sector payrolls grew 35,000 (1.1% y/y) and was the largest increase since May 2010. Construction industry jobs increased 20,000 (4.1% y/y) down from 23,000 rise during August.

Service-providing payrolls grew 155,000 (2.2% y/y), off from the 160,000 August rise. Industry growth varied. Trade, transportation and utilities added 38,000 jobs (2.0%) after a 30,000 gain. Financial activities jobs increased a steady 6,000 (0.8% y/y). Professional and business services added 29,000 jobs (3.2% y/y), the smallest increase February 2010.

Small businesses' payrolls rose an improved 88,000 in September (2.2% y/y) after gaining 81,000 in August. Medium-sized firms added a lessened 48,000 (1.9% y/y) after a 72,000 rise. Large-size company payrolls were strong and improved 77,000 (2.6% y/y) after 48,000 in August.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to April 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Sep Aug Jul Y/Y 2013 2012 2011
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 213 202 217 2.2% 2.0% 2.3% 1.8%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 88 82 96 2.2 2.1 2.5 1.1
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 48 72 85 1.9 1.6 2.0 2.0
 Large Payroll (>500) 77 48 36 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.7
Goods-Producing 58 42 27 2.2 1.6 2.2 1.7
 Manufacturing 35 16 7 1.1 0.6 1.6 1.9
Service-Producing 155 160 189 2.2 2.0 2.3 1.8
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