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Economy in Brief
U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Rise Again
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes increased 1.1% during March (-1.2% y/y) to 5.600 million units (AR)...
PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
In the EMU, both the services and manufacturing sectors took a substantial step down one month ago...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Selectively
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.4% during the last four weeks...
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
by Tom Moeller September 30, 2014
The Conference Board reported that their reading of consumer confidence declined to 86.0 this month (+7.2% y/y) from 93.4 during August, revised from 92.4. The latest figure was the lowest since May and fell short of expectations for 92.3 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures. The present situation figure moved 4.8% lower m/m (+21.6% y/y) to 89.4 from a revised 93.9, initially reported as 94.6. That was accompanied by a 10.1% m/m decline (-1.2% y/y) in the expectations reading to 83.7 from 93.1, revised from 90.9.
Business conditions were rated as good by a stable 23.4% of respondents. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a steady 30.1% of respondents, nearly the expansion low. A greatly lessened 15.2% thought there would be more jobs in six months, the least since May, and a lessened 18.6% thought business conditions would be better in six months. To the upside, a greatly improved 51.3% of respondents were going to buy a major appliance but an easier 4.3% of respondents planned to buy a new automobile within the next six months. Expectations for the inflation rate in six months slipped to 5.4%.
By age group, confidence deteriorated greatly for those under age 35 years old to the lowest level since January. For those aged 35-54 years old as well as those over 55, confidence also fell to the lowest level in three months.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.
Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Consumer Confidence Index | 86.0 | 93.4 | 90.3 | 7.2 | 73.2 | 67.1 | 58.1 |
Present Situation | 89.4 | 93.9 | 87.9 | 21.6 | 67.6 | 49.8 | 36.1 |
Expectations | 83.7 | 93.1 | 91.9 | -1.2 | 77.0 | 78.6 | 72.8 |
Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
Under 35 Years | 100.1 | 110.4 | 104.8 | -8.5 | 93.1 | 86.5 | 77.3 |
Aged 35-54 Years | 94.9 | 100.5 | 98.8 | 8.6 | 76.8 | 68.5 | 59.8 |
Over 55 Years | 72.5 | 80.7 | 75.9 | 15.3 | 61.2 | 56.7 | 47.3 |