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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Confidence Increases Again
by Tom Moeller  June 24, 2014

The Conference Board reported that their reading of consumer confidence improved 3.6% (3.8% y/y) to 85.2 this month from 82.2 in May, revised from 83.0. The latest figure was the highest since January 2008 and beat expectations for 83.5 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During the last ten years, there has been a 45% correlation between the level of confidence and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.

The present situations figure led overall confidence higher with a 6.0% rise (23.9% y/y) to 85.1 from a revised 80.3, initially reported as 80.4. That was accompanied by a 2.0% rebound (-6.5% y/y) in the expectations reading to 85.2. Business conditions were rated as good by a recovery high 23.0% of respondents. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by a slightly lessened 31.8% of respondents, near the expansion low. An improved 16.3% thought there would be more jobs in six months. To the downside, a greatly lessened 0.5% of respondents expected to buy a home in six months, the least since February of last year but an improved 50.2% were going to buy a major appliance. A greatly improved 4.6% of respondents planned to buy a new automobile within the next six months. Expectations for the inflation rate in six months slipped to 5.5%.

By age group, confidence deteriorated moderately amongst individuals under 35 years old. For those aged 35-54 years old, confidence improved to its highest level since September 2007 while confidence amongst individuals aged 55 and over jumped to its highest level since January 2008.

The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA.

Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) Jun May Apr Y/Y % 2013 2012 2011
Consumer Confidence Index 85.2 82.2 81.7 3.8 73.2 67.1 58.1
  Present Situation 85.1 80.3 78.5 23.9 67.6 49.8 36.1
  Expectations 85.2 83.5 83.9 -6.5 77.0 78.6 72.8
Consumer Confidence By Age Group
  Under 35 Years 102.3 106.4 105.0 1.2 93.1 86.5 77.3
  Aged 35-54 Years 92.1 88.4 86.8 8.9 76.8 68.5 59.8
  Over 55 Years 73.6 67.0 68.8 4.4 61.2 56.7 47.3
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