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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Employment Gain Moderates
by Tom Moeller  June 4, 2014

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 179,000 rise (2.1% y/y) in May nonfarm private sector jobs. Last month's gain followed increases of 215,000 and 198,000 in April and March, revised down from 220,000 and 209,000. During the last three months, job increases averaged 198,000, below the peak of 259,000 in February of 2012. The May job gain fell short of 210,000 expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.

Service-producing payrolls improved 150,000 (2.1% y/y), the weakest rise since January. Jobs in professional and business services increased 47,000 (3.2% y/y); transportation and utilities employment grew 35,000 (2.0% y/y) while financial activities headcount gained 5,000 (0.5% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 29,000 (1.9% y/y). Factory sector payrolls gained 10,000 (0.7% y/y), the strongest rise since December. Construction payrolls increased 14,000 (3.8% y/y).

Hiring amongst small businesses totaled 82,000 (2.1% y/y). Medium-sized firms' payrolls advanced 61,000 (1.7% y/y) while jobs at large-size companies rose 37,000 (2.6% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

Middle-Skill Jobs Lost in U.S. Labor Market Polarization from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas is available here.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report May Apr Mar Y/Y 2013 2012 2011
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 179 215 198 2.1% 2.0% 2.3% 1.8%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 82 76 77 2.1 2.1 2.5 1.1
 Medium Payroll (50-499) 61 82 53 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.0
 Large Payroll (>500) 37 56 68 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.7
Goods-Producing 29 21 29 1.9 1.6 2.2 1.7
 Manufacturing 10 2 5 0.7 0.6 1.6 1.9
Service-Producing 150 194 169 2.1 2.0 2.3 1.8
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