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Economy in Brief

New York State Expected Business Conditions Index Recovers
by Tom Moeller  June 3, 2014

For New York State, the Institute for Supply Management reported that their index for business conditions, six months hence, jumped to 69.7 during May after falling sharply to 58.8 in April. Despite the gain, the index remained below the highs reached earlier this year. (A level above 50 indicates growth in activity. The reading of current economic conditions recovered to 55.3, but also remained well below the early-year highs. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the N.Y. index and the Q/Q change in real GDP.

The prices paid index improved to 58.6 from 57.7. Since the figure is not seasonally adjusted, however, a comparison to 54.5 twelve months earlier is appropriate and also shows a pickup in pricing power. The index of current revenues of 58.7 (NSA, 17.4% y/y improved slightly m/m.

The ISM figures are diffusion indexes and can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.

ISM New York (Diffusion Index) May Apr Mar May'13 2013 2012 2011
Economic Conditions Six Months Hence (SA) 69.7 58.8 65.6 67.0 65.0 64.9 66.2
Current Economic Conditions (SA) 55.3 50.6 52.0 54.4 58.4 55.2 56.9
Prices Paid (NSA) 58.6 57.7 65.2 51.6 55.3 56.4 58.8
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