Recent Updates
- Japan: ** Japan's consumption activity index rebased from 2010=100 to 2011=100.**
- U.A.E: CPI (Mar); Lebanon: CPI (Mar); Israel: PMI (Mar)
- Markit PMI: Flash PMIs: France, Japan, Germany, Euro Area (Apr)
- Spain: Industrial New Orders and Turnover, Service Sector Activity (Feb)
- Norway: International Reserves (Mar)
- US: NABE Business Conditions Survey (Q1)
- New Zealand: Credit Card Statistics (Mar); Australia: Future
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller May 16, 2014
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicated that its Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions for May jumped to 19.01 from 1.29 during April. The latest was the highest level since May 2011 and beat expectations for 5.3, according to the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure also jumped this month to 55.0 from 49.6, the highest level in two years. A rising level of activity is indicated by a figure above 50. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 67% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Improvement in the overall May index was widespread: new orders, shipments, unfilled orders, delivery times and inventories each rose. The employment index reached its highest level in three years. During the last ten years there has been a 75% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid index fell to its lowest level since December. Twenty three percent of respondents reported paying higher prices while three percent paid less. During the last ten years, there has been a 70% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved sharply to 43.96, the highest level since early 2012. The index of prices paid in twelve months fell, however, to its lowest level since July of last year.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Empire State Manufacturing Survey | May | Apr | Mar | May'13 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted) | 55.0 | 49.6 | 51.7 | 49.3 | 50.0 | 51.8 | 51.8 |
General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %) | 19.01 | 1.29 | 5.61 | 0.27 | 3.82 | 4.29 | 4.48 |
New Orders | 10.44 | -2.77 | 3.13 | -0.67 | 1.13 | 1.47 | 4.04 |
Shipments | 17.44 | 3.15 | 3.97 | -0.36 | 4.49 | 11.22 | 9.47 |
Unfilled Orders | -1.10 | -13.27 | -16.47 | -6.82 | -8.74 | -8.83 | -5.29 |
Delivery Time | -1.10 | -9.18 | -3.53 | -3.41 | -3.52 | -0.30 | -0.91 |
Inventories | 2.20 | -3.06 | 7.06 | -7.95 | -5.73 | -2.91 | -1.80 |
Number of Employees | 20.88 | 8.16 | 5.88 | 5.68 | 3.73 | 8.62 | 6.68 |
Prices Paid | 19.78 | 22.45 | 21.18 | 20.45 | 21.53 | 24.71 | 40.66 |