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Economy in Brief

Fed Bank of Dallas Company Outlook Survey is the Most Optimistic Since 2010
by Tom Moeller  April 28, 2014

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its Company Outlook Index gained to 23.4 (SA) this month from 9.1 during March. It was the highest level since April 2010. The Production reading led the advance to 24.7, the highest level since 2011. The New Orders index also was firm with a rise to 21.3, the highest level since 2010. The employment figure gained strongly to the highest level since early-2012 but the prices paid index was roughly stable near its late-2012 level.

The Company Outlook Index, Six Months Ahead slipped marginally to 26.9 from 27.4, but it sustained the upward momentum since Q3. The General Business Activity index posted a strong m/m gain to 24.5 as expectations for new orders, production and shipments improved. Expectations for wages & benefits, however, fell sharply.

Each index is calculated by subtracting the percentage reporting a decrease from the percentage reporting an increase. When all firms report that activity has increased, an index will register 100. An index will register -100 when all firms report a decrease. An index will be zero when the number of firms reporting an increase or decrease is equal. Items may not add up to 100% because of rounding. The data can be found in Haver's SURVEYS database.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey Apr Mar Feb Apr '13 2013 2012 2011
Company Outlook - Current (SA) 23.4 9.1 3.4 -1.5 7.4 4.2 6.8
  General Business Activity 11.7 4.9 0.3 -15.0 2.2 -0.5 -0.5
  Production 24.7 17.1 10.8 -1.5 9.8 8.7 6.9
  New Orders Volume 21.3 14.7 9.5 -4.0 7.2 1.4 5.7
  Number of Employees 19.7 15.0 9.9 6.2 5.6 11.8 8.9
  Prices Received for Finished Goods 8.0 7.3 11.2 -3.4 2.9 0.9 9.2
  Wages & Benefits 21.3 20.8 25.8 17.5 16.6 16.7 14.5
 
Company Outlook - Future (6 Months Ahead) 26.9 27.4 20.6 6.9 17.3 14.3 19.7
  General Business Activity 24.5 17.6 15.2 -5.0 11.0 7.6 10.0
  Production 47.1 46.4 46.6 33.5 37.1 32.4 40.2
  New Orders Volume 43.9 42.1 41.9 33.1 34.3 29.5 37.1
  Wages & Benefits 39.8 47.6 42.8 38.4 38.2 34.2 35.1
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