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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Job Increase Slows With Severe Weather Conditions
by Tom Moeller  February 5, 2014

Job creation moderated last month with heavy snowfalls. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report showed a 175,000 rise (2.0% y/y) in nonfarm private sector jobs during January, the weakest increase since August. Expectations were for a 185,000 gain in the Action Economics survey. Last month's rise followed increases of 227,000 and 288,000 during December and November, last month reported as 238,000 and 229,000. During the last three months job increases averaged 230,000, below the peak of 279,000 in February of 2012.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.

Improvement in service-producing payrolls led job growth last month with a gain of 160,000 (2.1% y/y). Jobs in professional and business services increased 49,000 (2.9% y/y), transportation and utilities employment grew 31,000 (1.9% y/y) while financial activities headcount remained unchanged (0.7% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 15,000 (1.4% y/y), the weakest gain since August. Factory sector employment declined 12,000 (0.3% y/y) while construction payrolls improved by 25,000 (3.5% y/y), the weakest rise since October.

Hiring amongst small businesses rose 76,000 (2.0% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls advanced 66,000 (1.5% y/y) while jobs at large-size companies rose 35,000 (2.5% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jan Dec Nov Y/Y 2013 2012 2011
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 175 227 288 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 1.8%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 76 108 133 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.1
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 66 53 80 1.5 1.6 2.0 2.1
 Large Payroll (>500) 35 65 75 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.7
Goods-Producing 15 50 59 1.4 1.1 2.0 1.7
 Manufacturing -12 16 22 0.3 0.1 1.4 1.9
Service-Producing 160 177 230 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.8
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