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Economy in Brief

U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Shows Further Upward Momentum
by Tom Moeller  January 28, 2014

The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index gained another 0.9% during November following increases near 1.0% during the prior three months. These lifted the y/y rise to 13.8%, its strongest since February 2006. The 3-month annualized rate of increase remained firm at 12.4% following its slowdown this spring. Home prices in the narrower 10-city group also gained 0.9% (13.9% y/y). Not adjusted for normal seasonal variation, the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index slipped 0.1% in November after a 0.2% October gain.

Among individual cities, prices were strongest in Las Vegas where they rose 27.3% y/y, San Francisco which increased 23.3% y/y and Los Angeles which showed a 21.7 y/y rise. In each of these cities prices remained down roughly 20% or more from the 2006 peaks. Home prices have improved everywhere in the country but to a lesser extent. Gains were logged in New York, Cleveland and Washington D.C. with modest increases of roughly 6.0%. In these cities, prices remain down approximately 15% from their peaks.

The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. It is a three-month moving average and is calculated using the "repeat sales method," where the item measured is the price change for a specific house compared to the price for that same house the last time it sold. The nation-wide S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes can be found in Haver's USECON database, and the city data highlighted below are in the REGIONAL database.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA, %) Nov Oct Sept Nov
Y/Y
2012 2011 2010
20 City Composite Index 0.9 1.1 1.0 13.8 0.9 -3.9 1.3
Regional Indicators
Las Vegas 1.2 1.0 1.4 27.3 -0.3 -6.5 -7.7
San Francisco 1.3 0.7 1.4 23.3 3.5 -4.9 9.3
Los Angeles 0.8 1.5 1.2 21.7 0.7 -3.4 5.3
San Diego 0.7 0.6 1.2 18.7 1.2 -4.4 7.3
Atlanta 1.6 1.9 2.0 18.6 -7.8 -7.0 -2.4
Detroit 1.3 1.9 1.4 17.3 8.0 0.0 -3.4
Phoenix 0.4 1.1 1.4 16.8 13.9 -7.3 -0.3
Miami 1.6 1.8 1.2 16.5 5.1 -4.9 -2.1
Tampa 1.1 0.9 1.0 15.8 2.7 -6.6 -4.0
Portland 0.7 0.5 0.9 12.6 1.7 -7.1 -3.2
Seattle 0.4 0.4 0.6 12.4 2.1 -6.6 -3.6
Chicago 0.8 0.8 0.7 11.1 -2.8 -6.8 -3.7
Minneapolis 0.8 1.6 1.0 10.5 6.0 -8.2 3.2
Dallas 1.0 1.0 0.9 10.0 3.2 -2.4 0.1
Boston 1.3 0.9 1.2 9.8 0.5 -2.0 1.9
Denver 0.5 0.3 0.8 8.9 4.5 -2.1 0.9
Charlotte 0.5 1.2 0.5 8.7 1.7 -3.6 -3.4
Washington, D.C. 0.7 0.6 0.8 7.9 2.1 -0.4 4.7
Cleveland 1.2 0.8 1.5 6.0 0.0 -4.3 0.7
New York 0.8 0.8 0.6 5.0 -2.3 -3.1 -1.5
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