Recent Updates

  • Germany: **Wholesale Trade Prices rebased from 2010=100 to 2015=100**
  • Poland: Wages & Employment, Coal Production, Wholesale Sales, Industrial New Orders (Aug), International Trade (Jul), Business Tendency Survey (Sep); Russia: Foreign Cash Flow through Authorized Banks (Jul)
  • Spain: International Detailed Trade (Jul)
  • France: (INSEE) Services Survey (Sep)
  • Sweden: Export and Import Price Index (Aug)
  • Germany: Wholesale Trade Prices (Aug)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. Existing Home Sales Inch Higher M/M But Surge Y/Y
by Tom Moeller  January 23, 2014

Sales of existing single-family homes in December improved a modest 1.0% (-0.6% y/y) to 4.870 million (AR) versus a downwardly revised 4.820 million in November. Sales remained 9.6% lower versus the August high and fell short of 4.930 million expected in the Action Economics survey. Nevertheless, sales for all of last year increased 8.9% versus 2012 to 5.073 million. The rise repeated 2012's gain and was the highest level since 2006. Sales of existing single family homes improved 1.9% last month to 4.300 million (-0.7% y/y). For all of last year sales rose 8.2% to 4.470 million.

The median sales price of an existing single-family home recovered to $198,000 (9.9% y/y) last month following five consecutive months of decline. Prices have fallen 7.5% since the June peak. For all of 2013, strong price gains early in the year lifted the average price 11.5% above 2012 following that year's 6.6% increase. Prices nevertheless remained 11.9% below the 2006 peak.

The composite index of home affordability fell 16.1% y/y in November as mortgage rates rose to 4.38% from 3.50% twelve months earlier. Mortgage payments as a percent of income slipped m/m but at 14.7% were up versus 12.3% twelve months earlier.

The inventory of unsold homes fell during the last five months but remained up 1.6% y/y. The months' supply of unsold homes fell m/m to 4.6. That was nearly the lowest level of the cycle and compares to an 11.9 month supply in July of 2010.

The data on existing home sales, prices and affordability can be found in Haver's USECON database. The regional price, affordability and inventory data are available in the REALTOR database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, reported in the AS1REPNA database.

Existing Home Sales (SAAR, 000s) Dec Nov Oct Y/Y % 2013 2012 2011
Total 4,870 4,820 5,120 -0.6 5,073 4,661 4,278
Northeast 640 650 670 3.2 658 596 543
Midwest 1,110 1,160 1,220 -0.9 1,194 1,067 918
South 2,030 1,970 2,060 4.6 2,033 1,833 1,683
West 1,090 1,040 1,170 -10.7 1,189 1,165 1,133
Single-Family Sales 4,300 4,220 4,490 -0.7 4,470 4,130 3,793
Median Price Total ($, NSA) 198,000 195,500 197,500 9.9 195,683 175,442 164,542
close
large image