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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Jobs Survey Continues to Strengthen
by Tom Moeller  January 8, 2014

Job creation in the U.S. is building up a head of steam. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 238,000 rise (1.9% y/y) in nonfarm private sector jobs during December, the firmest increase since November 2012. Expectations were for a 200,000 employment gain in the Action Economics survey. The improvement followed upwardly revised increases of 229,000 and 206,000 during November and October, last month reported as 215,000 and 184,000. During the last three months, job increases averaged 224,000, the most in a year. Growth remained down, however, versus its peak of 280,000 in February of 2012.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.

Service-producing payrolls increased 179,000 last month (2.0% y/y). Jobs in professional and business services increased 53,000 (2.7% y/y), transportation and utilities employment grew 48,000 (1.9% y/y) and financial activities headcount gained 10,000 (0.8% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 69,000 (1.5% y/y) as manufacturing employment gained 19,000 (0.4% y/y). Construction payrolls improved by 48,000 (3.7% y/y).

Hiring amongst small businesses rose an improved 108,000 (2.0% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls advanced 59,000 (1.5% y/y), roughly half of the gains early in 2010. Jobs at large-size companies rose 71,000 (2.3% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Dec Nov Oct Y/Y 2013 2012 2011
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 238 229 206 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 1.8%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 108 101 76 2.0 1.7 2.1 1.1
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 59 58 44 1.5 1.5 2.0 2.1
 Large Payroll (>500) 71 70 87 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.7
Goods-Producing 69 46 37 1.5 1.1 2.0 1.7
 Manufacturing 19 23 12 0.4 0.1 1.4 1.9
Service-Producing 170 182 170 2.0 1.9 2.2 1.8
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