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Economy in Brief

U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Firms More; Strongest Since 2006
by Carol Stone  December 31, 2013

The seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20- City Home Price Index rose 1.0% in both September and October, making the twelve-month increase 13.6%, its greatest since February 2006. The 3-month annualized rate of increase had slowed during the summer, to 10.5% through August, but it picked back up in October to 12.5%. Home prices in the narrower 10-city group also gained 1.0% in October (also 13.6% y/y). Not adjusted for normal seasonal variation, the Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index inched up 0.2% in October after a 0.7% increase during September.

Among individual cities, prices seem to have moderated a bit in the West, with Las Vegas showing a 27.1% rise y/y, down from a high of 29.2% in August and San Francisco edging down to 24.6% in the latest reading from 25.7% in September. The Las Vegas price level bottomed in March 2012 and now stands 41.6% above that, though, of course, still 45.8% below the August 2006 peak. Prices have firmed elsewhere in the country, with even Detroit showing a 17.3% y/y gain and standing 47.0% above their April 2011 trough.

The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. It is a three-month moving average and is calculated using the "repeat sales method," where the item measured is the price change for a specific house compared to the price for that same house the last time it sold. The nation-wide S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes can be found in Haver's USECON database, and the city data highlighted below are in the REGIONAL database.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA, %) Oct Sept Aug Oct
Y/Y
2012 2011 2010
20 City Composite Index 1.0 1.0 0.9 13.6 0.9 -3.9 1.3
Regional Indicators
Las Vegas 0.6 1.6 2.2 27.1 -0.3 -6.5 -7.7
San Francisco 0.6 1.4 0.9 24.6 3.5 -4.9 9.3
Los Angeles 1.5 1.2 1.7 22.1 0.7 -3.4 5.3
San Diego 0.7 1.2 1.5 19.7 1.2 -4.4 7.3
Phoenix 1.1 1.4 1.3 18.1 13.9 -7.3 -0.3
Atlanta 1.8 2.0 1.7 19.0 -7.8 -7.0 -2.4
Detroit 1.8 1.3 0.5 17.3 8.0 0.0 -3.4
Tampa 0.9 1.0 1.5 15.2 2.7 -6.6 -4.0
Miami 1.9 1.1 0.6 15.8 5.1 -4.9 -2.1
Seattle 0.5 0.7 0.6 13.1 2.1 -6.6 -3.6
Portland 0.4 1.0 1.1 12.6 1.7 -7.1 -3.2
Minneapolis 1.6 0.9 1.1 11.4 6.0 -8.2 3.2
Denver 0.3 0.8 0.7 9.5 4.5 -2.1 0.9
Dallas 1.0 0.9 0.9 9.7 3.2 -2.4 0.1
Chicago 0.8 0.7 0.1 10.9 -2.8 -6.8 -3.7
Charlotte 1.2 0.4 0.8 8.8 1.7 -3.6 -3.4
Boston 0.9 1.1 0.6 8.6 0.5 -2.0 1.9
Washington, D.C. 0.6 0.8 0.4 7.5 2.1 -0.4 4.7
Cleveland 0.8 1.4 0.1 4.9 0.0 -4.3 0.7
New York 0.9 0.5 0.3 4.9 -2.3 -3.1 -1.5
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