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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Jobs Survey Unexpectedly Strengthens
by Tom Moeller  December 4, 2013

Job growth recovered last month. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 215,000 rise (1.9% y/y) in nonfarm private sector jobs during November, the firmest increase in a year. Consensus expectations were for a 175,000 employment gain in the Action Economics survey. The improvement followed upwardly revised increases of 184,000 and 185,000 during October and September, last month reported as 130,000 and 145,000. During the last three months, job increases averaged 196,000, the most since February. Growth remained down, however, versus its peak of 279,000 in February of last year.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.

Service-producing payrolls increased 176,000 last month (2.0% y/y). Jobs in trade, transportation and utilities grew 45,000 (1.8% y/y), employment in professional & businesses increased 38,000 (2.5% y/y) while financial activities headcount nudged up 5,000 (0.7% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 39,000 (1.3% y/y) as manufacturing employment gained 17,000 (0.2% y/y). Construction payrolls grew 18,000 (3.3% y/y). 

Hiring amongst small businesses rose an improved 102,000 (1.8% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls advanced 48,000 (1.6% y/y), less than half of the gains early last year. Jobs at large-size companies rose 64,000 (2.3% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database. 

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Nov Oct Sep Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 215 184 185 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% -0.7%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 102 61 89 1.8 2.1 1.1 -0.7
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 48 38 31 1.6 2.0 2.1 -0.5
 Large Payroll (>500) 65 85 65 2.3 2.4 2.7 -1.0
Goods-Producing 39 29 22 1.3 2.0 1.7 -4.2
 Manufacturing 18 10 2 0.2 1.4 1.9 -2.7
Service-Producing 176 156 163 2.0 2.2 1.8 0.0
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