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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Continues To Fall
by Tom Moeller  November 8, 2013

Consumer sentiment, as measured in the Reuters/University of Michigan survey, fell in early-November to a reading of 72.0 (-12.9% y/y). That compares to 73.2 last month and the June high of 85.1. This latest level was the lowest since December 2011 and was weaker than Consensus expectations for a rise to 74.8. During the last ten years, there has been a 58% correlation between the level of sentiment and three-month growth in real PCE.

Worries about current economic conditions weighed heavily on sentiment this month. The index fell to 87.2, the lowest level since January, while concern  about the future persisted. The consumer expectations index fell marginally to 62.3 m/m, following three months of sharp decline.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) Mid-Nov Oct Sep Nov '12 2012 2011 2010
Consumer Sentiment 72.0 73.2 77.5 82.7 76.5 67.3 71.8
 Current Economic Conditions 87.2 89.9 92.6 90.6 85.6 79.1 80.9
 Consumer Expectations 62.3 62.5 67.8 77.7 70.7 59.8 66.0
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