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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Remain on a Weak Footing
by Tom Moeller  November 5, 2013

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported that chain store sales slipped 0.6% last week (+1.9% y/y). They began this month 0.4% below the October average after falling 0.8% during all of that month. Sales were 4.3% below the high of last July. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at general merchandise stores. That correlation recently has declined.

General merchandise store sales account for 15% of total retail sales. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-Goldman Sachs (SA, 1977=100) 11/02/13 10/26/13 10/19/13 Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 538.2 541.6 543.8 1.9% 3.0% 3.2% 2.9%
   W/W % -0.6 -0.4 1.4 -- -- -- --
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