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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Survey Indicates Slowing Employment Growth
by Tom Moeller  October 30, 2013

Job growth has ratcheted down. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated a 130,000 rise (1.8% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs during October, the weakest gain in six months. It followed downwardly revised increases of 145,000 and 151,000 during September and August, last month reported as 166,000 and 159,000. Expectations were for a 151,000 rise in jobs. During the last three months, increases averaged 142,000. That compares to 220,000 this past January and 279,000 at the peak in February of last year.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.

Service-producing payrolls rose 107,000 last month (1.9% y/y). Jobs in trade, transportation and utilities gained 40,000 (1.9% y/y), employment in professional & businesses increased 20,000 (2.5% y/y) but financial activities headcount fell 6,000 (+0.7% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) as manufacturing jobs inched up 4,000 (0.1% y/y). Construction payrolls grew 14,000 (3.5% y/y). 

Hiring amongst small businesses rose a lessened 37,000 (1.7% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls rose 12,000 (1.6% y/y), roughly one-quarter of the gains early last year. Jobs at large-size companies rose 81,000 (2.4% y/y), the best gain since last November.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectation figure is available in Haver's AS1REPNA database. 

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Oct Sep Aug Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 130 145 151 1.8% 2.1% 1.8% -0.7%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 37 68 55 1.7 2.1 1.1 -0.7
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 12 18 60 1.6 2.0 2.1 -0.5
 Large Payroll (>500) 81 59 36 2.4 2.4 2.7 -1.0
Goods-Producing 24 15 7 1.3 2.0 1.7 -4.2
 Manufacturing 4 -1 4 0.1 1.4 1.9 -2.7
Service-Producing 107 130 143 1.9 2.2 1.8 0.0
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