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Economy in Brief

U.S. Case-Shiller Home Price Index Increase Is the Strongest Since 2006
by Tom Moeller  October 29, 2013

The 0.9% August gain in the seasonally adjusted Case-Shiller 20 City Home Price Index pulled the twelve-month rise to 12.8%, its greatest since February 2006. Notwithstanding this result, the 3-month annualized rate of increase fell to 10.0%, its lowest since late-2012. Home prices in the narrower 10 city group also rose 0.9% in August (12.8% y/y). Not adjusted for normal seasonal variation, the Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 1.3% after a 1.8% increase during July.

During the last year, home price appreciation has varied greatly with Las Vegas (29.2% y/y) and San Francisco (25.4% y/y) leading the pack. In the case of Las Vegas, however, prices have recaptured barely one-quarter of the decline since the peak in 2006. At the very low end of the appreciation range, the 3.6% gain in home prices in New York follows a one-quarter drop in prices after the 2006 peak.

The Case-Shiller home price series is value-weighted, i.e., a greater index weight is assigned to more expensive homes. It is a three-month moving average and is calculated using the "repeat sales method," where the item measured is the price change for a specific house compared to the price for that same house the last time it sold. The nation-wide S&P/Case-Shiller home price indexes can be found in Haver's USECON database, and the city data highlighted below are in the REGIONAL database.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (SA, %) Aug Jul Jun Aug
Y/Y
2012 2011 2010
20 City Composite Index 0.9 0.6 0.9 12.8 0.9 -3.9 1.3
Regional Indicators
Las Vegas 2.3 2.5 2.3 29.2 -0.3 -6.5 -7.7
San Francisco 0.9 1.2 1.7 25.4 3.5 -4.9 9.3
Los Angeles 1.7 1.5 1.6 21.7 0.7 -3.4 5.3
San Diego 1.6 1.5 2.1 21.5 1.2 -4.4 7.3
Phoenix 1.3 1.0 1.0 18.6 13.9 -7.3 -0.3
Atlanta 1.5 0.9 1.0 18.4 -7.8 -7.0 -2.4
Detroit 0.4 0.4 -0.1 16.3 8.0 0.0 -3.4
Tampa 1.5 1.2 1.0 14.1 2.7 -6.6 -4.0
Miami 0.5 -0.2 1.3 13.5 5.1 -4.9 -2.1
Seattle 0.7 1.3 0.9 13.2 2.1 -6.6 -3.6
Portland 1.0 0.5 1.0 13.0 1.7 -7.1 -3.2
Minneapolis 1.0 -0.8 -1.0 10.2 6.0 -8.2 3.2
Denver 0.7 1.0 0.4 10.1 4.5 -2.1 0.9
Dallas 0.8 0.7 0.5 9.0 3.2 -2.4 0.1
Chicago 0.1 1.0 0.2 8.6 -2.8 -6.8 -3.7
Charlotte 0.6 0.0 0.2 7.2 1.7 -3.6 -3.4
Boston 0.5 0.0 -0.1 6.3 0.5 -2.0 1.9
Washington, D.C. 0.3 0.2 -0.3 6.2 2.1 -0.4 4.7
Cleveland 0.1 -0.2 0.0 3.7 0.0 -4.3 0.7
New York 0.4 0.1 0.5 3.6 -2.3 -3.1 -1.5
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