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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Survey Indicates Slightly Disappointing Job Gains
by Tom Moeller  October 2, 2013

Employment growth is having difficulty improving versus past gains. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report showed a 166,000 rise (1.9% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs last month. That followed downwardly revised increases of 159,000 and 161,000 during August and July, last month reported as 176,000 and 198,000. During the last three months, increases averaged 162,000. That compares to 220,000 this past January and 279,000 at the peak in February of last year.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.

Service-producing payrolls rose 147,000 last month (2.0% y/y). Jobs in trade, transportation and utilities gained 55,000 (1.9% y/y), employment in professional & businesses increased 26,000 (2.5% y/y) while financial activities headcount fell 5,000 (+0.9% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 19,000 (1.3% y/y) while manufacturing jobs notched up 2,000 but were unchanged y/y. Construction payrolls grew 16,000 (3.7% y/y). 

Hiring amongst small businesses rose an improved 74,000 (1.8% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls expanded a lesser 28,000 (1.7% y/y), roughly one-quarter of the gains early last year while jobs at large-size companies rose an improved 64,000 (2.3% y/y), the best gain of 2013.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database. 

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Sep Aug Jul Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 166 159 161 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% -0.7%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 74 61 62 1.8 2.1 1.1 -0.7
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 28 65 49 1.7 2.0 2.1 -0.5
 Large Payroll (>500) 64 33 50 2.4 2.4 2.7 -1.0
Goods-Producing 19 7 22 1.3 2.0 1.7 -4.2
 Manufacturing 1 4 -4 0.0 1.4 1.9 -2.7
Service-Producing 147 152 139 2.0 2.2 1.8 0.0
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