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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Remains Depressed
by Tom Moeller  September 27, 2013

Consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey fell sharply this month to 77.5 (-1.0% y/y) from 82.1 during August. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 82.0. The mid-month sentiment reading was 76.8. During the last five years there has been a 44% correlation between the level of sentiment and three-month growth in real PCE.

The latest sentiment reading reflected weakness in both major components. The consumer expectations figure fell to 67.8 (-7.8% y/y), its lowest level since April. Sentiment regarding current economic conditions fell to 92.6 but remained 8.1% higher than last September.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

Bubbles Tomorrow, Yesterday, but Never Today? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.

Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) Sep Aug Jul Sep '12 2012 2011 2010
Consumer Sentiment 77.5 82.1 85.1 78.3 76.5 67.3 71.8
 Current Economic Conditions 92.6 95.2 98.6 85.7 85.6 79.1 80.9
 Consumer Expectations 67.8 73.7 76.5 73.5 70.7 59.8 66.0
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