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Economy in Brief
U.S. FHFA House Price Rise Moderates
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) Price Index for house purchases increased 0.2% in July (6.4% y/y)...
Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Business Activity Index Improves
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions at the company level increased to 46.8 in September...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Remain High; Crude Oil Costs Strengthen
Gasoline prices, at $2.84 per gallon last week (10.1% y/y), were unchanged from the prior week...
French Manufacturing Takes a Sizable Step Back
France's INSEE manufacturing survey fell sharply as the headline climate index shed the better part of three points...
Texas Factory Sector Index Retreats; Expectations Are Mixed
The Dallas Fed indicated in its Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey that the General Business Activity Index fell to 28.1 in September...
by Tom Moeller September 27, 2013
Consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey fell sharply this month to 77.5 (-1.0% y/y) from 82.1 during August. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 82.0. The mid-month sentiment reading was 76.8. During the last five years there has been a 44% correlation between the level of sentiment and three-month growth in real PCE.
The latest sentiment reading reflected weakness in both major components. The consumer expectations figure fell to 67.8 (-7.8% y/y), its lowest level since April. Sentiment regarding current economic conditions fell to 92.6 but remained 8.1% higher than last September.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Bubbles Tomorrow, Yesterday, but Never Today? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep '12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 77.5 | 82.1 | 85.1 | 78.3 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 92.6 | 95.2 | 98.6 | 85.7 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 67.8 | 73.7 | 76.5 | 73.5 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
