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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller September 27, 2013
Consumer sentiment from the Reuters/University of Michigan survey fell sharply this month to 77.5 (-1.0% y/y) from 82.1 during August. Consensus expectations had been for stability at 82.0. The mid-month sentiment reading was 76.8. During the last five years there has been a 44% correlation between the level of sentiment and three-month growth in real PCE.
The latest sentiment reading reflected weakness in both major components. The consumer expectations figure fell to 67.8 (-7.8% y/y), its lowest level since April. Sentiment regarding current economic conditions fell to 92.6 but remained 8.1% higher than last September.
The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Bubbles Tomorrow, Yesterday, but Never Today? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Reuters/University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep '12 | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Sentiment | 77.5 | 82.1 | 85.1 | 78.3 | 76.5 | 67.3 | 71.8 |
| Current Economic Conditions | 92.6 | 95.2 | 98.6 | 85.7 | 85.6 | 79.1 | 80.9 |
| Consumer Expectations | 67.8 | 73.7 | 76.5 | 73.5 | 70.7 | 59.8 | 66.0 |
