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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Survey Shows Continued Growth in Hiring
by Tom Moeller  September 5, 2013

Employment growth remains steady. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report showed a 176,000 rise (1.9% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs last month. That followed revised increases of 198,000 and 191,000 during July and June. The August increase roughly matched expectations for a 180,000 advance, according to the Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce August employment tomorrow and a 175,000 rise in non-farm private payrolls is the consensus projection. During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the ADP and the BLS figures.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here

Service-producing payrolls rose 165,000 (1.9% y/y). Jobs in professional & business services grew 50,000 (2.7% y/y); trade, transportation and utilities hiring rose 40,000 (1.8% y/y) while financial activities employment ticked up 2,000 (1.1% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 11,000 (1.2% y/y) while manufacturing jobs recovered 5,000 (-0.1% y/y). Construction payrolls grew 4,000 (3.6% y/y). 

Hiring amongst small businesses rose a slightly diminished 70,000 (1.8% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls expanded 74,000 (1.8% y/y), but that's still down from the gains early last year while jobs at large-size companies rose 32,000 (2.3% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database. 

Consumer Confidence: A Useful Indicator of...the Labor Market? from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found here.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Aug Jul Jun Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 176 198 191 1.9% 2.1% 1.8% -0.7%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 70 78 81 1.8 2.1 1.1 -0.7
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 74 64 60 1.8 2.0 2.1 -0.5
 Large Payroll (>500) 32 56 51 2.3 2.4 2.7 -1.0
Goods-Producing 11 22 27 1.2 2.0 1.7 -4.2
 Manufacturing 5 -3 3 -0.1 1.4 1.9 -2.7
Service-Producing 165 176 164 2.0 2.2 1.8 0.0
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