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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Credit Usage Continues Firm
by Tom Moeller  August 7, 2013

Improved labor markets are supporting confidence; thus the consumer is ramping up credit usage. During June, consumer credit outstanding grew $13.8B following a $17.5B May increase, revised from $19.6B. The y/y increase was stable at 5.8%. Consensus expectations were for a rise of $15.0B, as measured by the Action Economics survey.

The gain in non-revolving credit drove the June total. It increased $16.5B (8.0% y/y), up from an $11.1B gain in May. Federal government loans were up 21.0% y/y, these constitute about 29% of total non-revolving credit. Finance company lending (31% of the total) remained flat y/y and commercial bank lending (27% of the total) grew 6.0% y/y. Borrowing at credit unions (11% of the total) advanced 9.1% y/y while savings bank credit (2% of the total) rose 2.8% y/y.

Revolving credit, declined $2.7B (+1.1% y/y) in June. About 73% of this credit is held by commercial banks and it rose 1.4% y/y. Savings bank loans (7% of the total) gained 6.2% y/y). Finance company lending (8% of the total) fell 1.8% y/y and borrowing from credit unions (5% of the total) gained 7.4% y/y. Nonfinancial business loans (3% of the total) fell 19.5% y/y.

The figures used in this report are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. There is a break in the credit outstanding data from November 2010 to December 2010 due to the Fed's benchmarking process. Benchmark estimates are based on the Census of Finance Companies (CFC) and the Survey of Finance Companies (SFC) conducted in 2010 and 2011, respectively. The consumer credit data are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.

The Recent Bond Market Selloff in Historical Perspective from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York is available here.

Consumer Credit Outstanding (M/M Chg, SA) Jun May Apr Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Total $13.8B $17.5B $9.8B 5.8% 5.8% 3.7% -0.7%
   Revolving -2.7 6.4 0.8 1.1 0.4 0.2 -7.5
   Non-revolving 16.5 11.1 9.0 8.0 8.4 5.5 3.4
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