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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Survey Indicates Steady Improvement in Hiring
by Tom Moeller  July 31, 2013

The rate of new job creation remains positive. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report showed a 200,000 rise (1.8% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs this month. That followed revised increases of 198,000 and 141,000 during June and May. July's increase was slightly better than consensus expectations for a 180,000 advance, according to the Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce July payroll employment on Friday and a 187,000 rise in non-farm private payrolls is the consensus projection. During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the ADP and the BLS figures.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here

Service-producing payrolls rose a steady 177,000 (1.9% y/y). Jobs in professional & business services grew 49,000 (2.4% y/y), trade, transportation and utilities hiring rose 45,000 (1.8% y/y) while financial activities employment ticked up 4,000 (1.1% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 23,000 (1.0% y/y) but manufacturing jobs declined 5,000 (-0.2% y/y). Construction payrolls grew 22,000 (3.4% y/y). 

Hiring amongst small businesses rose a steady 82,000 (1.7% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls expanded 60,000 (1.6% y/y), still less than half the past peak rates of increase, while jobs at large-size companies rose an improved 58,000 (2.4% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover jobs only in the private sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database. 

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jul Jun May Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 200 198 141 1.8% 2.1% 1.8% -0.7%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 82 85 69 1.7 2.1 1.1 -0.7
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 60 61 38 1.6 2.0 2.1 -0.5
 Large Payroll (>500) 58 52 34 2.4 2.4 2.7 -1.0
Goods-Producing 23 22 -5 1.0 2.0 1.7 -4.2
 Manufacturing -5 0 -9 -0.2 1.4 1.9 -2.7
Service-Producing 177 176 146 1.9 2.2 1.8 0.0
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