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Economy in Brief

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Again Reflect Strong Aircraft Bookings
by Tom Moeller  July 25, 2013

New orders for durable goods jumped 4.2% last month (10.9% y/y) following an upwardly revised 5.2% increase during May, earlier reported as 3.6%. The gain easily outpaced consensus expectations for a 1.0% rise. The transportation sector continued to lead with a 12.8% advance (23.8% y/y), the third straight month of strong increase. Orders for aircraft & parts led the way with a 29.2% gain (85.9% y/y) while motor vehicle & parts orders rose 1.3% (10.1% y/y).

Excluding the transportation sector, orders were unchanged (4.9% y/y). Though machinery orders advanced 2.4% (8.0% y/y), bookings of computers & electronics fell 2.6% (+1.4% y/y). Primary metals orders slipped 0.2% (+5.4% y/y) but electrical equipment orders dropped 1.8% (+4.6% y/y). Orders for nondefense capital goods advanced 6.3% (24.9% y/y) with the strength in aircraft. Orders excluding aircraft ticked up 0.7% (7.1% y/y) following three months of strong increase. Defense sector orders jumped by one-third (-18.9% y/y).

Shipments of durable goods were unchanged (3.4% y/y) at the series' record high. Transportation sector shipments slipped 0.3% (+8.9% y/y), but outside of the transportation sector, shipments ticked up just 0.1% (1.3% y/y). Nondefense capital goods shipments fell 2.0% (+8.3% y/y). Excluding aircraft shipments slipped 0.9% (+0.8% y/y). Defense sector shipments rose 2.0% (-1.9% y/y).

Unfilled orders for durable goods rose 2.1% in June (5.1% y/y). Outside of the transportation sector, backlogs gained 0.9% (0.6% y/y). Inventories of durable goods ticked up 0.2% last month (2.9% y/y). Excluding transportation, inventories remained unchanged (0.3% y/y).

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database. 

 

Durable Goods NAICS Classification Jun May Apr Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
New Orders 4.2 5.2 3.6 10.9 4.1 11.0 23.2
  Transportation 12.8 14.8 8.0 23.8 8.9 14.9 49.5
Total Excluding Transportation 0.0 1.0 1.8 4.9 2.1 9.5 15.2
  Nondefense Capital Goods 6.3 12.9 3.5 24.9 3.7 15.3 27.5
    Excluding Aircraft 0.7 2.2 1.2 7.1 2.1 11.6 12.9
Shipments -0.0 1.3 -0.6 3.4 6.4 9.4 11.0
Inventories 0.2 -0.0 0.2 2.9 4.5 10.8 9.4
Unfilled Orders 2.1 1.1 0.3 5.1 3.7 10.0 5.2
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