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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Backpedal
by Tom Moeller  July 16, 2013

The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported that chain store sales declined 1.1% last week (+1.7% y/y) but remained near the record high. So far in July sales are 3.5% above the June average after two months of decline. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at general merchandise stores. That correlation recently has declined.

General merchandise store sales account for 15% of total retail sales. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.

ICSC-Goldman Sachs (SA, 1977=100) 07/13/13 07/06/13 06/29/13 Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 559.0 565.4 548.9 1.7% 3.0% 3.2% 2.9%
   W/W % -1.1 3.0 0.6 -- -- -- --
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