Recent Updates

  • France: **France Wages and Earnings Rebased to Q2-2017=100**
  • Flash PMIs: Japan, France, Germany, Euro Area, US (Sep)
  • Canada: CPI (Aug), Retail Trade (Jul)
  • Canada Regional: CPI by Province (Aug), Retail Trade by Province (Jul)
  • Norway: International Reserves (Aug), Government Debt (Q2); Finland: Quarterly Sector Accounts, Government Balance (Q2); Denmark: Property Price Indexes (Q2); Iceland: Wage Index (Aug)
  • Turkey: IIP & Intl Reserves (Jul); South Africa: Retail Survey (Q4); Mauritius: PPI (Jun); Lebanon: CPI (Aug)
  • more updates...

Economy in Brief

U.S. PPI Is Strengthened By Higher Energy Prices
by Tom Moeller  July 12, 2013

A surge in energy prices has changed the complexion of the U.S. inflation environment, for the worse. The producer price index for finished goods jumped 0.8% in June (1.8% y/y) following an unrevised 0.5% May increase. The gain exceeded consensus expectations for a 0.5% rise. Prices excluding food & energy rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y) following two months of 0.1% uptick. Another 0.1% rise had been expected. 

Higher energy prices were responsible for the strengthened PPI. Last month's 2.9% jump (4.2% y/y) followed a 1.3% May gain. Gasoline prices surged 7.2% (2.9% y/y) while home heating oil prices gained 6.1% (5.7% y/y). Electric power costs notched up 0.1% (3.0% y/y) while natural gas prices were unchanged. They have, however, surged 15.3% during the last twelve months. Food prices rose 0.2% (2.9% y/y) after a 0.6% April increase. The rise was led by a 4.7% jump (2.7% y/y) in beef & veal costs. That surge, however, was offset by a 26.9% drop (-6.3% y/y) in egg prices as well as a 0.2% slip (+1.4% y/y) in prices of processed fruits & vegetables.  

Finished consumer goods prices jumped 1.1% (3.1% y/y) with the energy price gain. Prices excluding food & energy, however, rose 0.2% (2.3% y/y) following two months of 0.1% upticks. Within the components, men's clothing costs increased 2.8% y/y while women's apparel prices rose 1.8% y/y. Furniture prices gained 1.5% y/y but household appliance prices slipped 0.3% y/y. Passenger car prices were off 0.2% y/y. Capital equipment prices edged up a steady 0.1% last month (0.9% y/y).

Intermediate goods prices gained 0.5% (1.1% y/y) as energy costs recovered 2.0% (0.4% y/y). Food prices rose 0.7% (4.2% y/y) while core intermediate prices ticked up 0.1% (0.9% y/y). Crude goods prices were unchanged last month (11.0% y/y) as a 0.3% increase in energy prices (21.5% y/y) was countered by a 0.3% decline  (+10.4% y/y) in food prices. Prices excluding food & energy ticked up 0.1% (-2.2% y/y).

The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database. 

Producer Price Index (%) Jun May Apr Jun Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Finished Goods 0.8 0.5 -0.7 2.5 1.9 6.0 4.2
  Less Food & Energy 0.2 0.1 0.1 1.6 2.6 2.4 1.2
    Foods 0.2 0.6 -0.8 2.9 2.6 6.3 3.9
    Energy 2.9 1.3 -2.5 4.2 -0.2 15.5 13.5
Intermediate Goods 0.5 -0.0 -0.6 1.1 0.5 9.0 6.4
  Less Food & Energy 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.9 0.3 6.2 4.3
Crude Goods 0.0 2.2 -0.4 11.0 -3.2 17.4 21.3
  Less Food & Energy 0.1 -2.3 -2.8 -2.2 -5.2 18.5 32.5
close
large image