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Economy in Brief
PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
In the EMU, both the services and manufacturing sectors took a substantial step down one month ago...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Selectively
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.4% during the last four weeks...
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
by Tom Moeller July 11, 2013
The Federal Government ran a $116.5B budget surplus during June of
FY'13. During June of last year, the government ran a $59.7B deficit. The
2013 figure compared to consensus expectations for a $40.0B surplus. So
far this fiscal year the deficit totaled $509.8B, nearly half the $904.2B
during the first nine months of FY'12.
Driving the improvement in June's budget balance was a 49.4% m/m decline in net outlays. Year-to-date outlays thus fell 4.8% versus 2012. Behind these declines was a nearly two-thirds m/m drop in Medicare spending that left YTD spending up a minimal 1.5% versus last year. National defense spending also dropped nearly one-quarter m/m pulling year-to-date outlays 6.6% below last year. The improved economy dropped YTD income security payments 2.2% below last year. Also to the downside were net interest payments by 3.9%. A 5.3% YTD increase in social security outlays as well as a 2.6% rise in health spending countered these declines. In addition, veterans benefits gained 6.8%.
An improved economy raised revenues a strong 14.4% so far this fiscal year versus last. That reflected an 18.0% y/y gain in individual income taxes and a 16.9% y/y rise in corporate income tax payments. Social insurance receipts jumped an accelerated 11.2% y/y while excise taxes grew 6.6% y/y.
Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts, and summary presentations of the Budget from both OMB and CBO are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.
Debt Overhang: Why Recovery from a Financial Crisis Can Be Slow from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia is available here.
US Government Finance | June | FY'12 | FY'11 | FY'10 | FY'09 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Budget Balance | -- | $116.5B | $-1,089B | $-1,298.7B | $-1,294.2B | $-1,415.7B |
As a percent of GDP | -- | -- | 7.0 | 8.6 | 8.0 | 9.5 |
% of Total | YTD FY'13 | |||||
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | 14.4% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 2.7% | -16.6% |
Individual Income Taxes | 47 | 18.0 | 3.7 | 21.5 | -1.8 | -20.1 |
Corporate Income Taxes | 8 | 16.9 | 33.8 | -5.4 | 38.5 | -54.6 |
Social Insurance Taxes | 36 | 11.2 | 3.2 | -5.3 | -2.9 | -1.0 |
Excise Taxes | 3 | 6.6 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 7.1 | -7.2 |
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) | 100 | -4.8 | -1.7 | 4.1 | -1.8 | 18.2 |
National Defense | 20 | -6.6 | -3.6 | 1.7 | 4.6 | 7.6 |
Health | 10 | 2.6 | -7.0 | 1.0 | 10.4 | 19.1 |
Medicare | 20 | 1.5 | -2.8 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 10.1 |
Income Security | 17 | -2.2 | -9.2 | -4.1 | 16.7 | 24.9 |
Social Security | 20 | 5.3 | 5.8 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 10.7 |
Veterans Benefits | 4 | 6.8 | -2.0 | 17.3 | 13.6 | 12.7 |
Interest | 6 | -3.9 | -2.1 | 15.8 | 2.9 | -24.6 |