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Economy in Brief

U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Decline Modestly
by Tom Moeller  July 3, 2013

Initial unemployment insurance claims fell to 343,000 (-8.3% y/y) during the week ended June 29 from an upwardly revised 348,000 during the week prior. Consensus expectations were for 345,000 claims. The four week moving average of claims slipped to 345,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.

Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended June 22 slipped to 2.933 million (-11.7% y/y) from 2.987 million. The four week moving average of continuing claims fell to a cycle-low of  2.969 million. The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.3% where it's been for eleven weeks. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of June 15, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients held steady w/w at 4.558 million, (-22.2% y/y). That compares to a cycle peak of 12.060 million in January 2010. The number of individuals who are collecting emergency and extended payments fell to a cycle low of 1.668 million (-36.2% y/y).

Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.


Unemployment Insurance (000s) 06/29/13 06/22/13 06/15/13 Y/Y % 2012 2011 2010
Initial Claims 343 348 355 -8.3 375 409 459
Continuing Claims -- 2,933 2,987 -11.7 3,318 3,744 4,544
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) -- 2.3 2.3 2.6
2.6 3.0 3.6
Total "All Programs" (NSA) -- -- 4.534 -22.5 6.047M 7.750M 9.850M
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