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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Jobs Survey Shows Improved Hiring
by Tom Moeller  July 3, 2013

The rate of new job creation has strengthened moderately. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report showed a 188,000 rise (1.7% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs last month. That followed revised increases of 134,000 and 124,000 during May and April. June's increase was the strongest since February and better than consensus expectations for a 155,000 advance, according to the Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce June payroll employment on Friday and a 175,000 rise in non-farm private payrolls is the consensus projection. During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the ADP and the BLS figures.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here

Service-producing payrolls rose an improved 161,000 (1.9% y/y). Jobs in trade, transportation and utilities rose 43,000 (1.7% y/y), professional & business services grew 40,000 (2.3% y/y) while financial activities employment gained 12,000 (1.2% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls rose 27,000 (1.0% y/y) but manufacturing payrolls were unchanged (-0.2% y/y). Construction payrolls rose 20,000 (3.1% y/y). 

Hiring amongst small businesses rose 84,000 (1.6% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls increased 55,000 (1.5% y/y), still less than half  the past peak rates of increase, while jobs at large-size companies rose an improved 49,000 (2.2% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database. 

 

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jun May Apr Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 188 134 124 1.7% 2.1% 1.8% -0.7%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 84 63 57 1.6 2.1 1.1 -0.7
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 55 37 28 1.5 2.0 2.1 -0.5
 Large Payroll (>500) 49 33 39 2.2 2.4 2.7 -1.0
Goods-Producing 27 -4 2 1.0 2.0 1.7 -4.2
 Manufacturing 0 -7 -12 -0.2 1.4 1.9 -2.7
Service-Producing 161 138 122 1.9 2.2 1.8 0.0
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