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Economy in Brief

U.S. Chain Store Sales Improve Moderately
by Tom Moeller  July 2, 2013

Consumer spending during June reached its nadir. The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported that chain store sales improved 0.3% last week (1.9% y/y), the third consecutive weekly gain. The June average slipped 0.7% from May, however, due to a sharp 2.7% decline early in the month. During the last ten years there has been a 61% correlation between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in retail sales at general merchandise stores. That correlation recently has declined.

General merchandise store sales account for 15% of total retail sales. The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

ICSC-Goldman Sachs (SA, 1977=100) 06/28/13 06/21/13 06/14/13 Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Total Weekly Chain Store Sales 548.9 545.8 540.1 1.9% 3.0% 3.2% 2.9%
   W/W % 0.6 1.1 0.3 -- -- --
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