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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Recovers in Late June
by Carol Stone  June 28, 2012

Consumer sentiment picked up in late June from the early month reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment, putting the month's overall index at 84.1, just marginally lower than May's firm 84.5 figure. June's total stands 14.9% above a year ago. Consensus estimates looked for this final figure to come at 83.0, barely higher than the mid-month 82.7 report. During the last ten years, there has been a 60% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.

The total index fell from May because current economic conditions were down 4.3% to 93.8 (+13.0% y/y), although this was an improvement from the mid-month 92.1. Consumer expectations continue to improve, coming at 77.8, up from 76.7 in mid-month and 75.8 in May. The June expectations figure was up 15.1% from a year ago.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The final monthly readings are based on telephone interviews with at least 500 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) June May Apr June'12 2012 2011 2010
Consumer Sentiment 84.1 84.5 76.4 73.2 76.5 67.3 71.8
 Current Economic Conditions 93.8 98.0 89.9 81.5 85.6 79.1 80.9
 Consumer Expectations 77.8 75.8 67.8 67.8 70.7 59.8 66.0
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