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Economy in Brief

U.S. Consumer Sentiment Deflates Moderately
by Tom Moeller  June 14, 2013

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for mid-June fell to 82.7 (13.0% y/y) from an unrevised 84.5 in May. The figure disappointed the consensus forecast for stability at 84.3. During the last ten years, there has been a 60% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.

This month's reading of current economic conditions fell 6.0% (+13.0% y/y) to 92.1. The consumer expectations figure improved 1.2% (13.1% y/y) to 76.7.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) Mid-June May Apr June'12 2012 2011 2010
Consumer Sentiment 82.7 84.5 76.4 73.2 76.5 67.3 71.8
 Current Economic Conditions 92.1 98.0 89.9 81.5 85.6 79.1 80.9
 Consumer Expectations 76.7 75.8 67.8 67.8 70.7 59.8 66.0
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