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Economy in Brief

U.S. Budget Deficit Grows Modestly
by Tom Moeller  June 12, 2013

The Federal Government ran a budget deficit during May of FY'13 of $138.7B, slightly larger than the $124.6B during May of last year. The figure compared to consensus expectations for a $109B deficit. So far this fiscal year the deficit totaled $626.3B, down from $844.5B during the first eight months of FY'12.

An improved economy raised revenues a strong 15.1% so far  this fiscal year versus last. That's been driven by a 19.5% y/y gain in individual income taxes and a 19.8% y/y rise in corporate income tax payments. Social insurance payments jumped an accelerated 10.8% y/y while excise taxes grew 8.6% y/y.

The minimal 0.8% y/y year-to-date rise in outlays was restrained by a 4.3% decline in defense expenditures. Medicare payments rose 14.6% y/y and veterans benefits grew 17.1%. Social security benefits rose 5.5% this fiscal year versus last while income security outlays increased just 2.2 y/y with the lower unemployment rate. The gain in health outlays also was a moderate 3.7% y/y.

Haver's basic data on Federal Government outlays and receipts, and summary presentations of the Budget from both OMB and CBO are contained in USECON. Considerable detail is given in the separate GOVFIN database.

Fiscal Headwinds: Is the Other Shoe About to Drop? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here .

US Government Finance May FY'12 FY'11 FY'10 FY'09
Budget Balance -- $-138.7 $-1,089B $-1,298.7B $-1,294.2B $-1,415.7B
  As a percent of GDP -- -- 7.0 8.6 8.0 9.5
% of Total YTD FY'13
Net Revenues (Y/Y % Change) 100 15.1% 6.4% 6.5% 2.7% -16.6%
  Individual Income Taxes 47 19.5 3.7 21.5 -1.8 -20.1
  Corporate Income Taxes 8 19.8 33.8 -5.4 38.5 -54.6
  Social Insurance Taxes 36 10.8 3.2 -5.3 -2.9 -1.0
  Excise Taxes 3 8.6 9.2 8.2 7.1 -7.2
Net Outlays (Y/Y % Change) 100 0.8 -1.7 4.1 -1.8 18.2
  National Defense 20 -4.3 -3.6 1.7 4.6 7.6
  Health 10 3.7 -7.0 1.0 10.4 19.1
  Medicare 20 14.6 -2.8 7.5 5.0 10.1
  Income Security 17 2.2 -9.2 -4.1 16.7 24.9
  Social Security 20 5.5 5.8 3.4 3.5 10.7
  Veterans Benefits 4 17.1 -2.0 17.3 13.6 12.7
  Interest 6 -1.6 -2.1 15.8 2.9 -24.6
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