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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Jobs Survey Indicates Moderate Hiring
by Tom Moeller  June 5, 2013

Companies remain hesitant to significantly ramp up new job creation. The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report showed a 136,000 rise (1.6% y/y) in non-farm private sector jobs last month. That followed revised increases of 112,000 and 154,000 during April and March, last month reported as 119,000 and 131,000, respectively. May's increase disappointed Consensus expectations for a 165,000 advance, according to the Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce May payroll employment on Friday and a 180,000 rise in non-farm private payrolls is the consensus projection. During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the ADP and the BLS figures.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Extensive information on the methodology is available here

Service-producing payrolls rose a moderate 138,000 (1.8% y/y). Jobs in professional & business services grew 42,000 (2.3% y/y), employment in trade, transportation and utilities rose 32,000 (1.5% y/y) while financial activities employment gained just 8,000 (1.0% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls fell 3,000 (0.8% y/y) but manufacturing payrolls fell 6,000 (-0.2% y/y). Construction payrolls rose 4,000 (2.7% y/y). 

Hiring amongst small businesses rose 59,000 (1.5% y/y), still less than half the earlier peak rates of increase. Medium sized firms' payrolls increased 39,000 (1.4% y/y), down by more than three-quarters from the peak while jobs at large-size companies rose a steady 38,000 (2.1% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database. 

 

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report May Apr Mar Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 136 112 154 1.6% 2.1% 1.8% -0.7%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 59 49 72 1.5 2.1 1.1 -0.7
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 39 26 36 1.4 2.0 2.1 -0.5
 Large Payroll (>500) 38 38 45 2.1 2.4 2.7 -1.0
Goods-Producing -3 -6 2 0.8 2.0 1.7 -4.2
 Manufacturing -6 -14 2 -0.2 1.4 1.9 -2.7
Service-Producing 138 119 152 1.8 2.2 1.8 0.0
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