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Economy in Brief

Consumer Sentiment Decline Moderates
by Tom Moeller  April 26, 2013

The University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment for April fell 2.8% to 76.4, unchanged y/y, from 78.6 in March. The figure was improved versus a mid-month reading of 72.3. It compared to the consensus forecast for 73.3. During the last ten years, there has been a 61% correlation between the level of sentiment and the three-month change in real personal consumption expenditures.

Last month's sentiment figure reflected a 4.2% decline (-6.2% y/y) to 67.8 in the consumer expectations reading. The present situations reading slipped 0.9% to 89.9, but that still was up 8.4% y/y.

The Reuters/University of Michigan survey data are not seasonally adjusted. The readings are based on telephone interviews with over 300 households. Data can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is from Action Economics and can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

University of Michigan (Q1'66 = 100) Apr  Mar Feb Apr '12 2012 2011 2010
Consumer Sentiment 76.4 78.6 77.6 76.4 76.5 67.3 71.8
 Current Economic Conditions 89.9 90.7 89.0 82.9 85.6 79.1 80.9
 Consumer Expectations 67.8 70.8 70.2 72.3 70.7 59.8 66.0
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