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Economy in Brief

U.S. ADP Employment Survey Indicates Slower Growth
by Tom Moeller  April 3, 2013

The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that growth in private sector jobs eased last month to its least since October. The 158,000 gain (1.7% y/y) followed a 238,000 February increase, initially reported as 198,000. Last month's growth disappointed Consensus expectations for a 197,000 advance, according to the Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce March payroll employment on Friday and a 200,000 rise is the consensus projection. During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the monthly ADP and the BLS figures.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Industry detail has been expanded to include the professional, business services, trade and transportation services industries. Also included are manufacturing, construction and financial activities. Extensive information on the methodology is available here

Service-producing payrolls provided meaningful job growth with a 152,000 rise (1.8% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls increased just 7,000 (1.0% y/y), while manufacturing payrolls rose 6,000 (0.2% y/y). Construction payrolls were unchanged (2.5% y/y). Hiring amongst small businesses provided the most payroll growth with a 74,000 (1.5% y/y) increase. Medium sized firms' payrolls gained 37,000 (1.4% y/y) while jobs at large-size companies rose 47,000 (2.2% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.


ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Mar Feb Jan Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 158 238 176 1.7% 2.1% 1.8% -0.7%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 74 101 106 1.5 2.1 1.1 -0.7
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 37 76 82 1.4 2.0 2.1 -0.5
 Large Payroll (>500) 47 61 -12 2.2 2.4 2.7 -1.0
Goods-Producing 7 38 27 1.0 2.0 1.7 -4.2
 Manufacturing 6 9 -5 0.2 1.4 1.9 -2.7
Service-Producing 152 199 150 1.8 2.2 1.8 0.0
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