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Economy in Brief
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Are Little Changed
Initial unemployment insurance claims slipped to 232,000 (-6.1% y/y) during the week ended April 14...
U.K. Retail Sales Fall
U.K. GDP is expected to cool its jets when the first quarter GDP number is released...
by Tom Moeller March 6, 2013
Nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 198,000 during February
according to the ADP/Moody's National Employment Report. The gain followed
a 215,000 January increase, initially reported as 192,000. Figures for all
of last year were revised up. Consensus
expectations were for a 170,000 February advance, according to the Action Economics
survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce February payroll
employment on Friday and a 164,000 rise is anticipated. During the last
ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the monthly ADP and the
BLS figures.
The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Industry detail has been expanded to include the professional, business services, trade and transportation services industries. Also included are manufacturing, construction and financial activities. Extensive information on the methodology is available here.
Service-producing payrolls continued to lead the employment gain with a 164,000 rise (1.8% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls increased 33,000 (1.0% y/y), while manufacturing payrolls gained 9,000 (0.2% y/y). Construction payrolls rose 21,000 (2.3% y/y). Amongst small businesses payrolls rose 76,000 (1.5% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls increased 65,000 (1.4% y/y) while jobs at large-size companies increased by 56,000 (2.3% y/y).
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Feb | Jan | Dec | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 198 | 215 | 208 | 1.6% | 2.1% | 1.8% | -0.7% |
Small Payroll (1-49) | 76 | 124 | 19 | 1.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | -0.7 |
Medium Payroll (1-49) | 65 | 89 | 113 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.1 | -0.5 |
Large Payroll (>500) | 56 | 2 | 77 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -1.0 |
Goods-Producing | 33 | 32 | 46 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | -4.2 |
Manufacturing | 9 | 2 | 5 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.9 | -2.7 |
Service-Producing | 164 | 184 | 162 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.8 | 0.0 |