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Economy in Brief

U.S. Payroll Growth in ADP Survey Remains Firm
by Tom Moeller  March 6, 2013

Nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 198,000 during February according to the ADP/Moody's National Employment Report. The gain followed a 215,000 January increase, initially reported as 192,000. Figures for all of last year were revised up. Consensus expectations were for a 170,000 February advance, according to the Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce February payroll employment on Friday and a 164,000 rise is anticipated. During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the monthly ADP and the BLS figures.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Industry detail has been expanded to include the professional, business services, trade and transportation services industries. Also included are manufacturing, construction and financial activities. Extensive information on the methodology is available here

Service-producing payrolls continued to lead the employment gain with a 164,000 rise (1.8% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls increased 33,000 (1.0% y/y), while manufacturing payrolls gained 9,000 (0.2% y/y). Construction payrolls rose 21,000 (2.3% y/y). Amongst small businesses payrolls rose 76,000 (1.5% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls increased 65,000 (1.4% y/y) while jobs at large-size companies increased by 56,000 (2.3% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Feb Jan Dec Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 198 215 208 1.6% 2.1% 1.8% -0.7%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 76 124 19 1.5 2.1 1.1 -0.7
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 65 89 113 1.4 2.0 2.1 -0.5
 Large Payroll (>500) 56 2 77 2.3 2.4 2.7 -1.0
Goods-Producing 33 32 46 1.0 2.0 1.7 -4.2
 Manufacturing 9 2 5 0.2 1.4 1.9 -2.7
Service-Producing 164 184 162 1.8 2.2 1.8 0.0
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