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Economy in Brief
PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
In the EMU, both the services and manufacturing sectors took a substantial step down one month ago...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Selectively
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.4% during the last four weeks...
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Jump
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.2 during April...
by Tom Moeller March 01, 2013
Personal income slumped 3.6% last month (+2.2% y/y) after an unrevised
2.6% December jump. A 2.1% decline was the consensus expectation. Last
month's fall was due to a one-third drop (-3.3% y/y) in dividend earnings.
Income, other than from dividends, also was down by 1.1% (+2.5% y/y). That
decline reflected a 0.6% drop (+2.9% y/y) in wage & salaries following
a 0.7% December rise. Adding to last month's decline was a 0.3% fall
(+1.6% y/y) in interest income. Offsetting these declines was rental
income which jumped 2.3% (13.0% y/y) while transfer receipts rose 0.3%
(3.5% y/y).
Despite the drop in income, consumers raised spending by an expected 0.2% (3.2% y/y). That followed a 0.1% December uptick. Leading last month's spending was a 0.4% rise in services outlays. Offsetting the gain was a 0.8% decline (+5.4% y/y) in spending on durable goods and no change (+2.1% y/y) in nondurables purchases.
With the slump in income and the modest gain in spending, the personal savings rate fell to 2.4% and retraced its earlier rise.
The PCE chain price index was unchanged (+1.2% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Nondurables prices fell 0.3% (+1.0% y/y). Durable goods prices were unchanged (-1.6% y/y) and services prices ticked up 0.1% (1.8% y/y). Excluding food & energy, the price index gained 0.1% (1.3% y/y).
Adjusted for price changes, disposable income slumped 4.0% (+0.6% y/y) and real spending inched up 0.1% (2.0% y/y) during January.
The personal income & consumption figures are available in Haver's USECON and USNA databases. The consensus expectation figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
Personal Income & Outlays (%) | Jan | Dec | Nov | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income | -3.6 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 |
Wages & Salaries | -0.6 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.1 |
Disposable Personal Income | -4.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.3 | 3.8 | 3.8 |
Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.8 |
Personal Saving Rate | 2.4 | 6.4 | 4.0 | 3.7 (Jan'12) |
3.9 | 14.2 | 5.1 |
PCE Chain Price Index | 0.0 | -0.0 | -0.2 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.9 |
Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
Real Disposable Income | -4.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 1.8 |
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.8 |