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Economy in Brief

U.S. Payrolls in ADP Survey Post a Steady Increase
by Tom Moeller  January 30, 2013

Nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 192,000 during January according to the ADP/Moody's National Employment Report. The gain followed a 185,000 December rise, initially reported as 215,000. Consensus expectations were for a 165,000 advance, according to the Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce January payroll employment on Friday and a 155,000 rise is anticipated. During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the monthly ADP and the BLS figures.

The ADP survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Industry detail has been expanded to include the professional, business services, trade and transportation services industries. Also included are manufacturing, construction and financial activities. Extensive information on the methodology is available here

Service-producing payrolls led last month's employment gain with a 177,000 rise (1.7% y/y). Goods-producing payrolls increased 15,000 (0.9% y/y), but manufacturing payrolls slipped 3,000 (+0.1% y/y). Construction payrolls rose 15,000 (2.0% y/y). Amongst small businesses, payrolls rose 115,000 (1.4% y/y). Medium sized firms' payrolls increased 79,000 (1.3% y/y) but large-size companies posted a 2,000 (+2.2% y/y) decline.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures in the new series date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database. 

 

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Jan Dec Nov Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 192 185 173 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% -0.8%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 115 9 50 1.4 1.6 1.0 -0.8
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 79 92 49 1.3 1.5 2.0 -0.6
 Large Payroll (>500) -2 83 75 2.2 2.4 2.7 -1.1
Goods-Producing 15 56 18 0.9 1.4 1.6 -4.3
 Manufacturing -3 19 -6 0.1 0.8 1.6 -2.7
Service-Producing 177 129 155 1.7 1.9 1.8 -0.1
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