- **Selected Poland CPI series delayed by CSO due to new weights**
- Spain: **SPAIN HICP rebased to 2015=100**
- US: Survey of Professional Forecasters (Q1)
- US: MTIS (Dec), Consumer Sentiment (Feb-prelim), Adv Retail Sales, Import/Export Prices (Jan), PPI Revisions
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Feb-prelim)
- US: Import Export Prices Detail (Jan)
- Greece: Flash GDP (Q4); Portugal: Flash GDP (Q4); Cyprus: Flash GDP (Q4)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Import and Export Prices Decline Steadily
Import prices declined 1.1% during January (-6.2% y/y), the same as in December...
U.S. Business Inventories Edge Up While Sales Slip in December
Total business inventories edged up 0.1% m/m (1.7% y/y) in December...
European GDP Is Mostly Steady But Weakened by Industrial Output
European GDP decelerated slightly over four quarters while annualized GDP also slipped quarter to quarter...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Improve
Despite continued weakness in factory sector output around the world during January, industrial commodity prices showed scattered improvement...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline to Seven-Week Low
Initial unemployment insurance claims retreated to 269,000 during the week ended February 6...
Dutch Retail Sales Continue Their Rebound But Trends Soften
Dutch retail sales have had a rocky time since 2007...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|