- Kenya: Trade (Dec), Foreign Reserves (Jan); Israel: Foreign Reserves (Feb)
- Hungary: External Trade, Export and Import Price Index (Dec)
- Spain: Large Firms' Wages, Employment and Sales (Jan)
- Finland: Motor Vehicle Registration (Feb); Sweden: IP, New Orders, Industrial Turnover, Services Index (Jan);
- Netherlands: CPI, HICP, Wages & Earnings (Feb)
- UK: Halifax House Prices (Feb)
- Germany: Manufacturing Sales & Orders (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications and Interest Rates Are Roughly Unchanged
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total Mortgage Market Volume Index ticked 0.1% higher last week (10.3% y/y)...
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Improves; Employment Strengthens
The ISM composite index of nonmanufacturing sector activity nudged higher to 56.9 during February from an unrevised 56.7 in January...
EMU Service Sector Leads!
The finalization of the EMU PMI indexes brought slightly weaker values to the report...
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Fall to Lowest Since April; Trucks Share is Trending Higher
Sales of light vehicles declined 2.6% during February to 16.23 million (AR) from 16.66 million in January...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Reach Another High; Crude Oil Prices Decline
Gasoline prices continued upward by 14 cents last week to $2.47 per gallon (-28.9% y/y) following the prior week's 6 cent increase...
New York State Economic Conditions Recover but Prices Ease
The ISM reported that, for New York State, their February index of business conditions expected in six months increased to 71.7...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|