- China: GDP (Q4)
- China: NCI Economic Activity Index (Jan)
- Spain: Import & Export Prices, International Trade Detail (Nov), Motor Vehicle Registrations (Dec)
- Canada: CPI (Dec), Retail Trade (Nov)
- Ireland: Wholesale and Producer Prices (Dec)
- Mexico: Employment (Dec)
- Estonia: PPI, Import & Export Prices (Dec), Agricultural Output Prices, Building Permits (Q4); Hungary: Wages, Employment (Nov);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
German PPI Takes Wing...Even Excluding Energy
Germany's PPI inflation excluding energy is pushing relentlessly higher...
U.S. Housing Starts Reach 2007 High
The housing market exhibited firm growth in 2016...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Fall Sharply
Initial unemployment insurance filings declined to 234,000 during the week ended January 14 from 249,000 in the prior week...
Philadelphia Fed Factory Business Outlook Survey Improves
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 23.6 during January from December's 19.7...
EMU Current Account Surplus Trumps the Past...All of It
The euro area has set a new record high current account surplus at 36.1 billion euros in November...
U.S. CPI Registers Faster Growth in 2016
The Consumer Price Index during all of 2016 increased 2.1% from December-to-December...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|