- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Oct)
- US: Regional Payroll Employment (Oct)
- Canada: CPI (Oct)
- UK: Public Sector Finance (Oct)
- Malaysia: CPI (Oct); Korea: First 20 Days of Trade (Nov); India: External Commercial Borrowings (Oct)
- Ireland: Wholesale and Producer Prices (Oct)
- Mexico: GDP (Q3), Economic Activity (Sep)
- Hungary: Wages (Sep); Montenegro: Employment (Sep), BOP (Q3);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Existing Home Sales Continue Improvement
Sales of existing single-family homes rose 1.5% to 5.260 million (AR, +2.5% y/y) in October from 5.180 million in September...
Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index Rebounds; Nears 1993 High
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index for November jumped to 40.8 from 20.7 in October...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Index Firms
The Index of Leading Economic Indicators from the Conference Board increased 0.9% last month (6.8% y/y) following a 0.7% September rise...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims are Little-Changed
Initial claims for jobless insurance during the week ended November 15 held fairly steady at 291,000...
EMU Flash PMIs Disappoint
The overall EMU private sector reading stands at 51.4 in November, down from 52.1 in October...
U.S. Housing Starts Weaken Overall; Building Permits Reach Six-Year High
Housing starts during October fell 2.8% (+7.7% y/y) to 1.009 million (AR) from 1.038 million in September...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|