- US: Retail Trade Revisions, Consumer Sentiment (Apr-Final), Personal Income (Mar), Employment Cost Index (Q1)
- US: Underlying NIPA Tables, Full Key Source Data (Q1-Adv)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Feb), Raw Material & Ind Product Prices (Mar)
- *Hong Kong CPI Rebased to 2014-2015=100 (Mar)*
- Turkey: Foreign Trade, Money Supply, BRSA Balance Sheet, Central Bank Loans & Deposits, Electricity Demand & Production, Tourism Expenditures (Mar), Fuel Pump Prices (Apr); Morocco: PPI (Mar); Mauritius: Depository Corporations Survey (Mar)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Remains Firm
The employment cost index for civilian workers increased 0.6% (1.9% y/y) during Q1'16...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Disappoints & Trends Sideways
Chicago purchasing managers reported that their Business Barometer Index declined to 50.4 this month...
Euro Area Unemployment Drops to 4.5-Year Low
EMU unemployment fell to 10.2% in March after being stuck at 10.4% for three consecutive months...
U.S. GDP Grows 0.5% in Q1'16
Growth in the U.S. economy was barely positive last quarter...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Rise
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 257,000 during the week ended April 23...
EU and Euro Area Show Some Improvement in April
The EU Commission Indices for the EU and EMU showed gains in April...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|