- Korea: Advance GDP (Q3)
- Mfg Survey: Japan, France, US (Flash - Oct)
- US: FRB Chicago National Activity Index (Sep)
- Palestine: Balance Sheet of Central Bank (Sep); Saudi Arabia: CPI (Sep); Kuwait: CPI (Sep); UAE: Monetary Aggregates, Foreign Assets, Monetary Base (Sep-Prelim)
- Germany: Wages and Salaries (Aug), Banking System Liquidity Position (Sep), Trade in Goods (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Chicago Fed National Activity Index Improves
The National Activity Index from the Chicago Fed increased to -0.14 during September from -0.72 in August...
Euro Area PMIs Surprise
The early flash PMI readings for the EMU, Germany and France show upside surprises mainly on the gains in the manufacturing indices in October...
U.S. State Unemployment Rates Range from 2.9% to 6.9%
The decline in the overall U.S. unemployment rate has stabilized this year around 4.9% versus 5.3% during 2015...
What's Goin' On? The PPP PPPardox
Why do things continue to go off-track in the global economy?...
U.S. Economic Growth Restrained By Broad Trends
During the last 10 years, economic growth has averaged 1.4% per annum...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Rebound
Sales of existing homes increased 3.2% (0.6% y/y) in September to 5.470 million units (AR)...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|