- Australia: PPI, Manufacturingg Materials Price, Construction Materials Price (Q2), Assets and Liabilities of ADIs (Jun); New Zealand: Business Outlook Survey (Jun)
- Japan: CPI, Number of Persons by Household, Labor Force Survey, Index of Living Expenditures, Loans and Discounts Outstanding (Jun)
- Korea: Economic Sentiment and Business Survey Index (Jul), IP, Wholesale and Retail Trade (Jun); Singapore: Loans and Advances MB (Jun), Singapore: Housing & Bridging Loans (Q2)
- UK: GFK Consumer Confidence (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Rise from 1973 Low
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 267,000 (-10.6% y/y) during the week ended July 25...
U.S. Merchandise Trade Deficit Deepens
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in goods during June deteriorated to $62.3 billion from $60.4 billion in May...
EU Commission Indices Show Strength in July
The overall index for the EU moved to 106.6 in July from 105.5 in June...
FOMC Holds Rates Steady; Sees Moderate Economic Growth and Stable Inflation Expectations
The Fed indicated that growth in consumer spending is moderate and the housing sector shows signs of improvement...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Unexpectedly Ease
The NAR reported that pending sales of single-family homes declined 1.8% during June (+11.1% y/y)...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue Moving Sideways
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index notched 0.8% higher last week (11.4% y/y)...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|