- US: Texas Service Outlook Survey (Nov)
- US: Construction (Oct)
- US: ISM Manufacturing (Nov)
- US: Personal Consumption Expenditures by State (1997-2014 Revised)
- Canada: GDP (Q3)
- Markit PMI: Manufacturing Survey - India, Taiwan, Japan, Korea, China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, UK, Germany, France, US, Canada, Mexico, Emerging and Developed Markets, JP Morgan Global (Nov)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Construction Activity Continues to Strengthen
The value of construction put-in-place increased 1.0% during October following an unrevised 0.6% September increase...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Decline; Crude Oil Nudges Up
Gasoline prices at the pump declined last week to $2.06 per gallon, down 3 cents from the prior week...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Improve
The NAR reported that pending sales of single-family homes gained 0.2% during October (2.1% y/y)...
Chicago Business Barometer Reverses Earlier Improvement; Suggests Economic Contraction
The Chicago Business Barometer in November plummeted 7.5 points to 48.7 and fully reversed its October rise...
Dallas Fed Factory Sector Activity Improves; Employment Figures Strengthen
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas reported that its November Composite index of factory sector activity increased to -4.9 from -12.7...
Japan's IP Marks a Strong October Gain
Japan's industrial production index rose by 1.4% in October, pushing the three-month growth rate up to 5.4% annual rate...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|