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- Markit PMI: EU Productivity Indexes (Aug)
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Economy in Brief
U.S. Trade Deficit Is Shallower
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in goods and services during July eased to $41.9 billion from $45.2 billion in June...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Rebound to Eight-Week High
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rebounded to 282,000 during the week ended August 29 from 270,000 in the prior week...
Challenger Job Cut Announcements Pull Back
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job cut announcements during August declined sharply to 41,186...
Euro Area Total Private PMI Gauge Moves Higher
The EMU PMI rose to 54.3 in August from 53.9 in July...
U.S. ADP Payroll Increase Is Fairly Stable
The ADP/Moody's National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls increased 190,000 during August following a 177,000 July...
U.S. Productivity is Revised Higher Following Two Quarters of Decline
Nonfarm productivity growth during Q2'15 was revised higher to 3.3% from 1.3% reported initially...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|