- Canada: Retail Trade (Jun), CPI (Jul)
- Mexico: Semimonthly CPI, National Employment Survey (Jul)
- Croatia: Earnings (Jun), Unemployment Rate (Jul); Albania: Domestic Debt, Banking System Liabilities (Q2); Montenegro: Wages (Jul); Hungary: Wages (Jun), Balance Sheet of Insurance Companies (Q2)
- Ireland: WPI, PPI (Jul)
- Morocco: CPI (Jul)
- Spain: Construction Permits (Jun), Tourism (Jul)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Canada's Retail Sales Surge
Canada's retail sales are hopping...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Increase to Ten-Month High
Sales of existing single-family homes strengthened 2.4% to 5.150 million (AR) during July from 5.030 million in June...
U.S. LEI Begins to Accelerate
The index of leading economic indicators is beginning to accelerate...
Philadelphia Fed Business Conditions Index Improves; Expectations Surge
The Philadelphia Fed reported that its General Business Conditions Index for August jumped to 28.0 from 23.9 in July...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Slip
Initial claims for jobless insurance during the week ended August 16 eased to 298,000 from 312,000 in the prior week...
EMU PMIs Wither Again in August- It Isn't the Heat
The flash PMI for the European Monetary Union in August slipped once again to 52.8 from 54.0 in July...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|