- UK: **Industrial Production Rebased to 2012=100*
- US: ADP Regional Employment Report (Sep)
- Chile: Trade Headline (Sep)
- UK: NCI Economic Activity Index (Oct)
- France: International Trade (Aug), Security Issues (Q3)
- Denmark: Motor Vehicle Registrations (Sep); Norway: Intl Reserves (Sep)
- Global Sector PMI (Sep)
- European Union Sector PMI (Sep)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
German Industrial Output Falls in August; Is it a Harbinger?
In August German IP fell by 1.2% marking declines in two of the last three months...
U.S. Trade Deficit Deepens Unexpectedly
The U.S. foreign trade deficit in goods and services during August increased...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Remain Stable; Natural Gas Hits 2012 Low
Gasoline prices at the pump remained unchanged last week at $2.32 per gallon (-29.7% y/y) ...
German Orders Drop Again in August
Year-over-year German orders are still advancing but they fell in month-to-month in August...
U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Declines, Led By Orders
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Business fell to 56.9 during September...
Global MFG Takes Another Step Back in September
The Markit (and for the US, ISM) MFG PMI's largely weakened globally in September...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|