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Economy in Brief
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Rebounds
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Business Barometer Index increased to 54.2 during September...
Euro Area Unemployment Rate Is Locked at 10.1%
Fresh unemployment and inflation data are out for the EMU area...
U.S. GDP Growth Increase Revised Up; Business Investment Grew
Economic growth during Q2'16 was revised higher to 1.4% (SAAR, 1.3% y/y) from 1.1% estimated last month...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Rise
Initial claims for jobless insurance increased to 254,000 (-8.3% y/y) in the week ended September 24...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline
The NAR reported that pending home sales fell 2.4% during August (-0.2% y/y)...
Euro Area Indices Put Bad Month Behind Them
The plotted EU indices show some stabilization and pick up in the most recent data...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|