- New Zealand: Building Consents Issued (Oct)
- Korea: Economic Sentiment and Business Survey Index (Nov)
- Spain: **GDP changed to ESA2010 (Q3)**, Advance HICP & CPI, Order Book Forcast, Central Bank and Other MFI Balance Sheets (Oct), Housing & Building Completions, Construction Approvals (Sep), Building Construction Licenses (Jun)
- Korea: Average Monthly Wages (MMM)
- Malta: PPI (Oct); Cyprus: IP (Sep); Switzerland: IP (Q3)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. New Home Sales Improve; Prices Jump
New home sales during October edged up 0.7% m/m to 458,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 0.4% rise to 455,000 in September...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Boosted by Defense Aircraft
New orders for durable goods rose 0.4% during October (+5.5% y/y) following a 0.9% fall in September...
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Jump; Unemployment Rate Falls to New Low
Initial claims for jobless insurance during the week ended November 22 jumped to 313,000 from 292,000 during the prior period...
U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline
Pending sales of single-family homes fell 1.1% last month (+2.2% y/y) following a little-revised 0.6% gain during September...
Italian Consumer Confidence in an Era of Radioactivity
Italy's consumer confidence indicator from ISAE fell in November to reach a nine-month low...
U.S. GDP Growth in Q3 Is Revised Higher; Profits Growth Slows
GDP grew 3.9% last quarter (2.4% y/y), revised up from the advance estimate of 3.5% growth...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|