- Japan: **CPI rebased from 2010=100 to 2015=100.**
- Finland: Building Production (Jun); Sweden: Turnover Index, Real Estate Price Index (Q2)
- Turkey: Wages Indexes (Q2), Foreign Reserves (Jul)
- Spain: Retail Trade (Jul)
- France: INSEE Household Survey (Aug)
- Japan: Core CPI (Jul-Prelim), CPI (Jul)
- Thailand: International Trade Press, Government Revenue (Jul); Mongolia: IIP (Q2); Korea: Consumer Survey Index (Aug), Motor
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Applications Decline
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 261,000 (-4.0% y/y) during the week ended August 20...
German IFO Survey Fades
All components of the IFO index except construction demonstrated a significant monthly fade in August...
U.S. Existing Home Sales and Prices Weaken Unexpectedly
Sales of existing homes declined 3.2% (-1.6% y/y) during July to 5.390 million units (AR)...
U.S. FHFA House Price Index Loses Momentum
The FHFA index of U.S. house prices rose a modest 0.2% in June for the third consecutive month...
Finland's PPI Continues to Descend
Producer prices in Finland continue to slip with a 0.3% drop in July ending a two month string of increases...
U.S. New Home Sales Surge While Prices Ease
Sales of new single-family homes increased 12.4% (31.3% y/y) to 654,000 (SAAR) during July...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|