- Japan: International Trade, Real Trade Indexes (Prelim-Sep), Domestic Shipments of Electronic Equipment (Sep)
- Taiwan: Labor Market (Sep); Korea: International Trade Settlements (Sep)
- Australia: Internet Vacancy Index (Sep), CPI (Q3)
- US: Wage Rigidity Meter (Sep); Philly Fed Nonmfg Business Outlook Survey (Oct)
- Realtors Confidence Index Survey (Sep)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Chain Store Sales Fall Hard
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported that chain store sales declined 0.3% last week...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Reach 2011 Low
The cost of a gallon of regular gasoline continued to fall sharply last week...
Japan's All Industry Index Erodes
Japan's economy continues to be weak...
U.S. Business Economists Survey Shows Easing Economic Conditions
The NABE reported in its Survey of Business Conditions that the unit demand figure declined to 42.3 last quarter from 52.4 in Q2...
Italian Orders Rebound but Go Nowhere
Italian industrial orders in August rose by 1.5% after a 1.5% decline in July...
U.S. Housing Starts Rebound Led By Multi-Family
Housing starts during September recovered 6.3% to 1.017 million (AR, 17.8% y/y) after a 12.8% decline to 957,000 during August...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|