- US: Household Employment for States and Regions (Feb)
- US: Regional Payroll Employment (Feb)
- US: Consumer Sentiment (Mar-final), GDP & Corp Profits (Q4-3rd Est)
- Turkey: Foreign Reserves & Currency Liquidity, Tourism (Feb); Egypt: IP (Jan); Kuwait: BOP (Q3)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Mar-final)
- US: Selected NIPA Tables (Q3-3rd Estimate)
- Hungary: Employment and Unemployment (Feb); Estonia: Government Finance (Feb); Bulgaria: Tourist Arrivals (Feb), Business
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
French Households Begin to Feel Better... But Not Well
The French household confidence reading has been stuck in a range of mostly the mid- to high-80s...
U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Return to Five-Week Low
Initial claims for jobless insurance in the week ended March 21 declined to 282,000 from an unrevised 291,000 during the prior week...
Kansas City Fed's Factory Sector Index Moves Sharply Lower, Helped by Port Closings
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that business activity moderated significantly this month...
EMU Trends Turn Up for Credit and Money
The EMU is showing a clear pick up in credit and money growth trends as of February...
U.S. Durable Goods Orders Decline is Broad-Based
New orders for durable goods fell 1.4% during February (+0.6% y/y) following a 2.0% January increase...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Recover as Interest Rates Decline
The MBA U.S. total Mortgage Market Volume Index increased 9.5% last week (21.0% y/y) to the highest level since early-February...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|