- US: Agricultural Prices (Oct), Consumer Sentiment (Oct-final), Employment Cost Index (Q3), Personal Income (Sep)
- Ireland: Money Supply (Sep), Credit Measures (Sep)
- Spain: Capacity Utilization (Q4), BOP (Aug), Central Govt Debt (Sep), Consumer Confidence (Oct)
- Consumer Sentiment Detail (Oct-final)
- US: Chicago PMI, Milwaukee PMI (Oct)
- US: Underlying NIPA Tables (Q3-Adv), Key Source Data (Q3)
- Canada: GDP by Industry (Aug)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Employment Cost Index Strengthens
The employment cost index for private industry workers jumped 0.7% (2.3% y/y) in Q3'14, following an unrevised 0.8% Q2 rise...
Euro Area Joblessness Hangs High as Other Activity Gauges Wither
October 31 has turned out to be a very bad data day for the European Union as well as for the euro area...
U.S. GDP Growth in Q3 Is Stronger Than Expected
GDP grew 3.5% last quarter (2.3% y/y) following an unrevised 4.6% rise...
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Tick Higher
Initial claims for unemployment insurance during the week ended October 25 rose to 287,000 (-17.1% y/y) from 284,000...
EU Indices Head Higher in October
The EU overall sentiment index rose to a level of 104 in October from 103.5 in September...
FOMC Ends QE As Economy Improves & Inflation Remains Low
The Fed indicated that labor market improvement, moderate growth in household spending and positive business investment growth allowed for ending QE...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|