- Sweden: **GDP Change to ESA2010 (Q2)**
- Italy: Production in Construction (Jul)
- Iceland: HICP (Aug)
- China: Fixed Asset Investment (Aug), CPI (Aug); Hong Kong: Labor Market (Aug)
- Spain: Industrial Turnover and New Orders (Jul), Credit Institution Impairment Allowances and Balance Sheet (Q2, Jul)
- Euro area: Investment Fund Statisitcs (Jul)
- Turkey: IIP & Intl Reserves, Motor Vehicle Registrations (Jul);
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Current Account Deficit Shrinks
The U.S. current account deficit decreased in Q2'14 to $98.5 billion from $102.1 billion in Q1...
U.S. Home Builders Index Improves Sharply
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo jumped to 59 during September...
Euro Area HICP Steadies at 0.4%
The overall inflation rate in the European Monetary Union settled in at 0.4% year-over-year...
U.S. Producer Prices Remain Unchanged; Core Index Up 0.1%
The overall Final Demand Producer Price Index held steady during August (1.8% y/y) following an unrevised 0.1% uptick in July...
U.S. Chain Store Sales Weaken Sharply
The International Council of Shopping Centers and Goldman Sachs reported that chain store sales fell 2.6% last week...
U.S. Energy Prices Move Lower
The price for a gallon of regular gasoline declined to $3.41 (-3.9% y/y...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|