- *Reference year for Morocco's GDP has changed to 2007*
- US: Autodata Vehicle Sales (Jun), Constr Spending (May+Revisions), ISM Manufacturing, ADP Employment Report (Jun)
- US: Local and Metro Area Household Employment (May)
- US: Challenger Employment Report (Jun)
- Spain: ANFAC Automobile Registrations (Jun)
- Israel: Inflation Expectation (Jun); Turkey: Exports from the Turkish Exporters Assembly (Jun); Morocco: BOP (Q1)
- Hungary: PMI (Jun); Kazakhstan: GDP by Industry & Income (Q1),
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index Improves to Best Level Since January
Factory sector activity is strengthening...
Challenger Job Cut Announcements Improve
The outplacement firm of Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job cut announcements during June increased to 44,842 (42.7% y/y)...
U.S. Construction Spending Growth Eases
The value of construction put-in-place increased 0.8% during May following a little-revised 2.1% April gain...
Markit Manufacturing Indices Are Mixed in June; Conditions Turn Up in EMU
Globally, the manufacturing PMI picture is mixed...
U.S. Consumer Confidence Nears Expansion High
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased 7.2% this month to 101.4 from 94.6 during May...
Chicago Purchasing Managers Index Remains Below Break-Even
Chicago purchasing managers reported that their June Business Barometer Index improved to 49.4 during June following an unrevised decline to 46.2 in May...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|