- Japan: International Trade (May-Prelim), Flow of Funds (Q1-Prelim); Real Trade Index (May)
- New Zealand: BOP (Q1)
- US: Office and Industrial Vacancy Rates (Q1)
- US: CPI, New Residential Construction (May)
- Canada: Housing Starts (May, Final)
- US: Consumer Price Detail (May)
- Austria: GDP (Q1)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. CPI Ticks Higher But Food Prices Slip
The cost of living remains under control. The consumer price index edged up a minimal 0.1% in May...
U.S. Chain Store Sales Tick Up W/W but Trend Lower
Consumer spending this month seems to be on a weak footing...
U.S. Gasoline Prices Slip While Crude Oil Strengthens
The price of regular gasoline retreated last week to $3.63 per gallon but remained up 2.6% versus last year...
German Zew Expectations Make Slight Rise as European Auto Sales Struggle
The Zew economic index for Germany saw its expectations component rise slightly to 38.5 from 36.4 in June...
U.S. Home Builders Index Surges To Highest Level Since 2006
Improvement in the housing market is gaining momentum...
Empire State Factory Index Recovers but Components Weaken
Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions rose to 7.84 this month from an unrevised -1.43 in May...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|