- US: Advance Durable Goods (Jun)
- Netherlands: CBS Business Survey, Producer Confidence (Jul), Central Bank Balance Sheet, Money Supply, MFI Balance Sheet, MFI Loans and Deposits (Jun); Belgium: Business Survey (Jul)
- US: Housing Starts by State and Region (Jun)
- US: Regional Building Permits (Jun and YTD)
- US: GDP by Industry (Q1)
- Ireland: Personal and Corporate Bankruptcies (2013)
- Iraq: Crude Oil Exports (Jun); Turkey: Foreign Trade, Intl
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
Kansas City Fed Factory Sector Activity and Pricing Power Indexes Recover M/M
The Kansas City Fed reported that its July Composite index of 10th District factory sector activity improved to 9...
U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall to Eight-Year Low
Improvement in the labor market may have picked up steam this month...
EMU Flash PMI Rises amid Sector Divergence; Mind the Gap!
The European Monetary Union's flash total private sector PMI rose to a level of 54 in July from 52.8 in June...
U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Continue In Sideways Trend
The MBA total Mortgage Market Volume Index improved 2.4% last week (-31.9% y/y)...
French Business Climate Struggles
The French business climate indicator from the INSEE survey fell in July...
U.S. Consumer Prices Moderate; Services Price Pressures Ease
Consumer prices gained 0.3% (2.1% y/y) during June following a strong 0.4% May rise...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|