- US: Value & Weight of Imports and Exports (Jan)
- US: Employment Situation (Feb), International Trade (Jan)
- US: Imports & Exports by State (Jan)
- Mexico Semimonthly CPI
- Canada: Labor Force Survey (Feb), Labor Productivity (Q4), Trade (Jan)
- US: Household Survey Detail (Feb)
- US: Establishment Survey Detail (Feb)
- Ireland: Motor Vehicle Registrations, International Reserves (Feb), IP, Private Sector Credit (Jan)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Financial Accounts Show Larger Total Credit Demand, But Households and Corporations Use Less
The Federal Reserve's financial accounts data for Q4 show total credit market borrowing at a $3.12 trillion annual rate...
U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Move Lower
The labor market continues to show erratic improvement...
U.S. Worker Productivity Growth Is Revised Lower
Nonfarm business sector productivity improved 1.8% last quarter (1.3% y/y), revised down from last month's estimate of 3.2% growth...
U.S. Factory Orders Move Lower as Inventories Rise
Orders to all manufacturers fell 0.7% (+2.0% y/y) during January following a 2.0% December decline...
Challenger Job Cut Announcements Slip While Hiring Plans Improve
Challenger, Gray & Christmas reported that job cut announcements edged down slightly to 41,835 (-24.4% y/y) during February...
German Orders Recover and Show Strength
German orders returned to their expansion path in January...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|