- Italy: Business & Consumer Survey (Jul)
- UK: GDP (Q2-Prelim)
- Spain: Central Bank Balance Sheet, Motor Vehicle Production Press (Jun)
- Euro area: Monetary Developments in the Euro Area (Jun)
- Kazakhstan: Pension Accumulations (Jun); Lithuania: Retail Trade (Jun); Georgia: Financial Soundness Indicators (Q2), Foreign Trade (Jun)
- Sweden: Consumer Confidence, Business Tendency Survey (Jul), International Trade (Jun)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Consumer Confidence Remains Steady
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index of 97.3 during July stayed close to 97.4 in June...
U.S. Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices Weaken Further
Regular gasoline prices declined to $2.18 per gallon last week (-20.5% y/y)...
Japan's PPI Stays Low
Japan may be tired of weak prices, but the weakness is not letting up...
Texas Factory Sector Activity Reverses Earlier Deterioration; Outlook Brightens
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas indicated that its industrial activity in the state was little-changed during July...
UK CBI Survey for Q3 Deteriorates
U.K. optimism fell sharply in the Q3 CBI industrial trends survey by the Confederation of British Industry...
U.S. State Unemployment Rates Vary from 2.7% to 6.7%
The decline in the overall U.S. unemployment rate has stabilized this year, averaging 4.9% versus 5.3% during 2015...
by Tom Moeller January 15, 2013
The Empire State Factory Index of General Business Conditions was negative in January for the sixth consecutive month. Moreover, except for one month in 2010, the latest reading of -7.78 was nearly the lowest level of the economic recovery. Consensus expectations had been for -1.9. Based on these figures, Haver Analytics calculates an index that is compatible to the ISM series. The adjusted figure declined to 47.5, also near the lowest of the recovery. Since inception in 2001, the business conditions index has had a 64% correlation with the quarterly change in real GDP.
Most of the index components were negative this month, notably new orders, shipments and delivery times. Employment was negative for the fourth consecutive month. During the last ten years there has been a 76% correlation between the jobs index and the m/m change in factory sector payrolls.
The prices paid reading improved m/m to 22.58, its highest level since May of last year. Twenty five percent of respondents indicated paying higher prices while just 2% paid less. During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the index and the 3-month change in the intermediate goods PPI.
Looking ahead, the Empire State index of expected business conditions in six months improved moderately to 20.41. Component index readings were mixed. New orders and inventories rose but prices and employment declined.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes which are calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting poorer business conditions from those reporting improvement. Thus, they have a good correlation with growth in the series covered. The data is available in Haver's SURVEYS database. The ISM-adjusted headline index is calculated by Haver Analytics. The series date back only to 2001. The Consensus expectation figure is in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
|Empire State Manufacturing Survey||Jan||Dec||Nov||Jan'12||2012||2011||2010|
|General Business Conditions (ISM Adjusted)||47.5||48.5||48.9||54.6||51.8||51.8||52.9|
|General Business Conditions (Diffusion Index, %)||-7.78||-7.30||-4.31||12.12||4.24||4.47||13.86|
|Number of Employees||-4.30||-9.68||-14.61||12.09||8.62||6.68||14.29|