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Economy in Brief

European IP Still Declines
by Robert Brusca  January 11, 2013

The Q4-to-date column (far right in table) is a telling statistic about the condition of Europe. The current level of the respective IP indices as a centered growth rate over the Q3 base shows that IP is declining across all these EU and EMU members alike. Ireland at -33.6% as experiencing the worst crush at the moment while Norway and the Netherlands (-3.6% and -3.7%, respectively) are experiencing the smallest declines.

The large core member countries of Germany and France are experiencing output declines at an annual rate of about 15% of Germany and 10% for France. Their rate of descent has 'caught up to' Greece (-15%), Portugal (-13%) and Spain (-12%).

Only three EMU members had month to month increases in IP in November. But the super-sensitive PMI indices are turning a corner and moving higher. Still for EMU we must pay attention to the levels of the PMI indices as they are still showing contraction and this is what we see in the table. In fact ten of eleven of the countries in the table have seen their rate of growth worsen over three months compared to six months. So the rates of growth for IP have not tended to show the softening in the downward pressures yet that are being indicated in the PMIs.

Assorted e-Zone Countries and EU Members
SAAR except Mo/Mo Mo/Mo Nov-12 Nov-12 Nov-12 Oct-12
MFG Only Nov-12 Oct-12 Sep-12 3-Mo 6-Mo 12-Mo Q4-Date
 Germany 0.4% -2.0% -2.0% -13.9% -6.4% -3.3% -3.8% -14.8%
 France 0.2% -0.8% -3.3% -14.5% -1.8% -4.6% -3.7% -10.2%
Finland -0.5% 0.6% -1.3% -4.8% -5.3% -2.1% -0.4% -4.4%
Netherlands 1.2% -1.4% -0.1% -1.1% 0.7% 0.4% -1.7% -3.7%
Spain -6.3% 3.8% -5.6% -29.1% -9.7% -8.1% -2.8% -12.3%
Ireland -1.1% 2.8% -14.7% -43.4% -23.4% -6.2% -16.6% -33.5%
Greece -2.5% 2.9% -8.6% -29.4% -5.5% -3.0% 3.6% -14.6%
Portugal -3.4% 5.5% -12.0% -35.1% -7.9% -4.4% -3.6% -13.1%
UK: EU Member -0.4% -1.2% 0.0% -6.4% -5.6% -2.1% -2.0% -8.6%
Sweden -1.5% 0.5% -4.3% -19.4% -10.2% -4.5% -4.5% -13.6%
Norway -0.1% -0.3% -1.0% -5.6% 1.6% 2.5% 2.7% -3.6%
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