Recent Updates
- US: New Res Sales (Mar), S&P Case Shiller Home Price Indexes, FHFA HPI (Feb), Final Building Permits (Mar)
- US: Steel Imports (Mar-Prelim)
- US: Richmond Fed Mfg & Service Sector Surveys (Apr)
- US: Consumer Confidence (Apr)
- Belgium: Business Confidence (Apr)
- US: Regional Building Permits (Mar and YTD)
- Ireland: Bank Lending Survey (Q2)
- France: BdF Bank Lending Survey (Q2)
- more updates...
Economy in Brief
U.S. Existing Home Sales & Prices Rise Again
The NAR reported that sales of existing homes increased 1.1% during March (-1.2% y/y) to 5.600 million units (AR)...
PMIs Stabilize or Creep Higher After Drop-Off
In the EMU, both the services and manufacturing sectors took a substantial step down one month ago...
FIBER: Industrial Commodity Prices Strengthen Selectively
The FIBER Industrial Materials Price Index increased 0.4% during the last four weeks...
German PPI Accelerates
The German year-on-year PPI has generally been decelerating since early 2017...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Signal Continued Expansion
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.3% during March...
by Tom Moeller January 3, 2013
Private sector payrolls jumped 215,000 last month according to the
ADP/Moody's National Employment Report. The gain followed an upwardly
revised 148,000 November increase and easily outpaced consensus
expectations for a 135,000 rise, according to the Action Economics survey.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce December payroll
employment tomorrow and a 45,000 rise is anticipated. During the last ten
years there has been a 96% correlation between the monthly ADP and the BLS
figures.
The survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Industry detail has been expanded to include the professional, business services, trade and transportation services industries. Also included are manufacturing, construction and financial activities reported before. Extensive information on the methodology is given on the ADP website, here.
Service-producing payrolls again led the gain with a 187,000 (1.7% y/y) during December. Goods-producing payrolls increased 28,000 (0.7% y/y), but manufacturing payrolls fell 11,000 (-0.0% y/y). Construction payrolls rose 38,000 (1.9% y/y). Amongst small businesses payrolls rose 25,000 (1.3% y/y). Medium sized firms jumped 102,000 (1.3% y/y) and large-size companies posted a 88,000 (2.4% y/y) gain.
The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures in the new series date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database.
Will the Jobless Rate Drop Take a Break? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here .
ADP/Moody's National Employment Report | Dec | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) | 215 | 148 | 159 | 1.6% | 1.8% | 1.7% | -0.8% |
Small Payroll (1-49) | 25 | 37 | 55 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | -0.8 |
Medium Payroll (1-49) | 102 | 40 | 26 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 2.0 | -0.6 |
Large Payroll (>500) | 88 | 71 | 78 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | -1.1 |
Goods-Producing | 28 | 8 | 10 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.6 | -4.3 |
Manufacturing | -11 | -13 | -8 | -0.0 | 0.8 | 1.6 | -2.7 |
Service-Producing | 187 | 140 | 149 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.8 | -0.1 |