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Economy in Brief

U.S. Payrolls Show A Surprisingly Firm Increase in ADP Survey
by Tom Moeller  January 3, 2013

Private sector payrolls jumped 215,000 last month according to the ADP/Moody's National Employment Report. The gain followed an upwardly revised 148,000 November increase and easily outpaced consensus expectations for a 135,000 rise, according to the Action Economics survey. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will announce December payroll employment tomorrow and a 45,000 rise is anticipated. During the last ten years there has been a 96% correlation between the monthly ADP and the BLS figures.

The survey is based on ADP's business payroll transaction system covering 406,000 companies and roughly 23 million employees. The data are processed by Moody's Analytics, Inc., then calibrated and aligned with the BLS data. Industry detail has been expanded to include the professional, business services, trade and transportation services industries. Also included are manufacturing, construction and financial activities reported before. Extensive information on the methodology is given on the ADP website, here

Service-producing payrolls again led the gain with a 187,000 (1.7% y/y) during December. Goods-producing payrolls increased 28,000 (0.7% y/y), but manufacturing payrolls fell 11,000 (-0.0% y/y). Construction payrolls rose 38,000 (1.9% y/y). Amongst small businesses payrolls rose 25,000 (1.3% y/y). Medium sized firms jumped 102,000 (1.3% y/y) and large-size companies posted a 88,000 (2.4% y/y) gain.

The ADP National Employment Report data are maintained in Haver's USECON database; historical figures in the new series date back to March 2001. The figures in this report cover only private sector jobs and exclude employment in the public sector. The expectations figures are available in Haver's AS1REPNA database. 

Will the Jobless Rate Drop Take a Break? from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here .

ADP/Moody's National Employment Report Dec Nov Oct Y/Y 2012 2011 2010
Nonfarm Private Payroll Employment (m/m chg, 000s) 215 148 159 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% -0.8%
 Small Payroll (1-49) 25 37 55 1.3 1.6 1.0 -0.8
 Medium Payroll (1-49) 102 40 26 1.3 1.5 2.0 -0.6
 Large Payroll (>500) 88 71 78 2.4 2.4 2.7 -1.1
Goods-Producing 28 8 10 0.7 1.4 1.6 -4.3
 Manufacturing -11 -13 -8 -0.0 0.8 1.6 -2.7
Service-Producing 187 140 149 1.7 1.9 1.8 -0.1
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