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Economy in Brief

U.S. Durable Goods Orders Up 0.7% in November with Mixed Industry Pattern
by Carol Stone  December 21, 2012

Durable goods orders increased 0.7% in November (0.8% y/y) after a 1.1% rise in October. October's figure was revised from the "advance" figure of zero change reported a month ago and the full manufacturing report number of 0.5%. November's outcome was similar to the Consensus expectation of a 0.5% rise.

The transportation equipment sector was down 1.1% due to aircraft, for which orders remain volatile around a basically flat trend; the nondefense portion fell 13.9% in November and defense aircraft fell 12.3%. These declines were partially offset by a gain in motor vehicles and parts of 3.5%, limiting the decline in total transportation orders.

Durable goods orders excluding transportation were up 1.6% (0.4% y/y), a third consecutive steady increase that followed 1.9% in October and 1.7% in September. Several industries had good gains in November. Primary metals were up 2.4% for a second consecutive month, and fabricated metal products firmed to a 1.9% increase from 0.7% in October. Orders for nonelectrical machinery rose 3.3% following October's 3.4% rise, and electrical equipment and appliances followed their 5.6% October rise with another 1.8% in November. Other sectors were less vigorous, as computer and electronic products barely moved, just +0.1% after 2.2% in October, and all other durable goods industries reported a second successive erosion of 0.1%. Nondefense capital goods orders fell 2.8% in November, but this represented the combination of the fall in nondefense aircraft and a nice rise of 2.7% in all other nondefense capital goods orders.

Shipments of durable goods gained 1.5% (+6.0% y/y) and excluding transportation shipments were up 1.3% (+3.5% y/y). Unfilled orders edged up 0.1% (3.3% y/y) while inventories rose 0.2% (4.8% y/y).

The durable goods figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics consensus forecast figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

Durable Goods NAICS Classification
Nov Oct Sep Y/Y 2011 2010 2009
New Orders 0.7 1.1 9.1 0.8 9.8 27.1 -30.0
 Transportation -1.1 -0.6 29.7 1.6 12.8 57.4 -42.0
Total Excl Transportation 1.6 1.9 1.7 0.4 8.6 18.0 -25.4
 Nondefense Capital Goods -2.8 2.8 22.8 -6.6 13.2 36.3 -36.9
  Excl Aircraft 2.7 3.2 -0.5 1.3 10.3 17.1 -24.5
Shipments 1.5 0.1 0.5 6.0 9.6 11.4 -21.0
Inventories 0.2 0.3 0.2 4.8 10.3 9.5 -10.2
Unfilled Orders 0.1 0.3 0.1 -3.3 10.3 9.6 -19.5
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