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Economy in Brief
EMU Sinks on New Flash PMI Readings
The EMU PMI sank to its cyclical low in mid-2016 then hit its cycle higher in 2018...
U.S. Financial Accounts See Borrowing Ease with Downswing in Federal Government Needs
Borrowing in U.S. financial markets slowed in Q2 2018...
U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Increase
The Conference Board's Composite Index of Leading Economic Indicators increased 0.4% (6.4% y/y)...
U.S. Existing Home Sales Hold Steady
The National Association of Realtors reported that sales of existing homes during August were unchanged at 5.340 million (SAAR, -1.5%)....
Philadelphia Fed Factory Conditions Improve; Prices Weaken Again
The Philadelphia Fed that its General Factory Sector Business Conditions Index rose to 22.9 during September...
by Tom Moeller December 13, 2012
Total retail sales recovered 0.3% last month following an unrevised 0.3% October decline. A 0.4% rise November sales had been expected according to Action Economics. Retail sales were unchanged excluding autos, as expected, for the second consecutive month. The mix of sales, however, was more encouraging than these top-line numbers suggest.
Consumers spent less on gasoline last month as prices fell. A 4.0% drop (+0.8% y/y) in gas purchases accompanied a 2.5% decline in seasonally adjusted prices, as calculated by Haver. Also adding to volatility was a 1.4% recovery (5.4% y/y) in motor vehicle sales. Excluding gasoline and autos, retail sales rose a notable 0.7% (3.3% y/y) and more than recovered their 0.2% October falloff. Also adding to volatility was a 1.6% rise (5.4% y/y) in sales of building materials. A good indication of consumers' underlying ability to spend on discretionary items are sales without these volatile components. Excluding autos, gas and building materials, retail sales rose a respectable 0.5%. However, the 2.9% y/y increase was lower than the peak y/y gain of 7.1%, ending October of last year.Sales of home furnishings, appliances and electronics jumped 1.7% (2.4% y/y) after a 0.7% October decline. Appliance and electronics purchases gained 2.5% (-1.0% y/y) while furniture store sales increased 1.0% (6.2% y/y). Sales of apparel & accessory stores gained 0.9% (6.4% y/y), the strongest m/m increase in six months. Working the other way were general merchandise purchases, down 0.9% (-2.7% y/y) and negative for the third straight month. Food & beverages store sales slipped 0.3 (+2.9% y/y) but sales of nonstore retailers jumped 3.0% (11.1% y/y).
The retail sales figure are available in Haver's USECON database. The Action Economics figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Retail Spending (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Retail Sales & Food Services | 0.3 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 5.5 | -7.1 |
| Excluding Autos | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.1 | 3.3 | 7.4 | 4.5 | -5.7 |
| Retail Sales | 0.2 | -0.4 | 1.2 | 3.4 | 8.3 | 5.8 | -7.9 |
| Motor Vehicle & Parts | 1.4 | -1.9 | 1.9 | 5.4 | 10.9 | 10.8 | -13.9 |
| Retail excluding Autos | -0.1 | -0.0 | 1.1 | 2.9 | 7.6 | 4.7 | -6.4 |
| Gasoline Stations | -4.0 | 1.0 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 17.9 | 14.7 | -22.0 |
| Non-Auto Less Gasoline | 0.7 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 3.2 | -3.4 |
| Food Service | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 6.0 | 5.9 | 3.2 | -0.9 |
