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Economy in Brief
U.S. Mortgage Applications Continue to Weaken
The MBA Loan Applications Index fell 1.2% (-54.5% y/y) in the week ended May 20...
German Climate Reading Continues to Skid Toward the Abyss
Germany's GfK consumer climate reading improved ever so slightly in June...
U.S. New Home Sales Plunge in April as Prices Jump
The new home sales market is unraveling...
U.S. Energy Prices Rise Further
Retail gasoline prices increased to $4.59 per gallon in the week ended May 23...
S&P Flash PMIs Are Mixed in May As Manufacturing Erodes Slowly
Among the early reporting countries in Europe and Japan, the S&P PMI readings for May tilt toward weakness...
Viewpoints
Commentaries are the opinions of the author and do not reflect the views of Haver Analytics.
State Coincident Indexes in April 2022
State Labor Markets in April 2022
Profits & Margins Plunge In Q1: Expect More Margin Contraction As Fed Squeezes Inflation
The Many Links of Inflation Cycle: Hard Landing Is Needed to Crack Them
Peak Inflation and Fed Policy: A Relationship which Should Worry the Fed and Scare Investors
by Louise Curley December 11, 2012
The 278 German financial experts participating in the latest ZEW survey, which took place from November 26th to December 10th, were more optimistic than they were last month. While they appraised the current situation only a bit more optimistically--the optimists exceed the pessimist by 5.7%, compared with 5.4% in November--they were much more optimistic about conditions six months ahead. Whereas the pessimists exceeded the optimists by 15.7% in November, the optimists exceeded the pessimists by 6.9% in December--a positive change of 22.6 percentage points. Moreover, this is the first preponderance of optimists regarding economic expectations in Germany since May of this year, as can be seen in the first chart. More positive data from the United States and China released in early December may have encouraged the investors and analysts.
For the Euro Area, as a whole, the financial experts see a slight improvement in the current condition of the area, from an excess of pessimists over optimists of 80.3% in November to 79.9% in December. The change could merely reflect the improvement in the appraisal of Germany's current condition and mean little change in the appraisals of the rest of the countries in the Area. The fact that the December expectations for the Euro Area are more positive than those for Germany and have been less negative in the preceding four months suggests, however, that the outlooks for some countries of the Euro Area other than Germany have also improved. Moreover, while expectation for the Euro Area have often been negative this year, they have been less negative than the appraisals of current conditions as can be seen in the second chart, suggesting that the participants in the survey are beginning to see some positive developments for months ahead.
ZEW Survey 2012 | ||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Dec | Nov | Oct | Sep | Aug | Jul | Jun | May | |
GERMANY (Percent Balances) | ||||||||
Current Conditions | 5.7 | 5.4 | 10.0 | 12.6 | 18.2 | 21.1 | 33.6 | 44.1 |
Expectations | 6.9 | -15.7 | -11.5 | -18.2 | -25.5 | -19.6 | -16.9 | 10.8 |
EURO AREA (Percent Balances) | ||||||||
Current Conditions | -79.9 | -80.3 | -79.4 | -76.3 | -75.1 | -72.9 | -73.2 | -60.2 |
Expectations | 7.6 | -2.6 | -1.4 | -3.8 | -21.2 | -22.3 | -20.1 | -2.4 |